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Harish Damodaran

NEW DELHI, Jan. 1

WHEAT production is set to recover to the 70-million tonne plus level this year, notwithstanding the extended dry weather conditions since August in the entire North-West belt of the country.

The main wheat growing belt, comprising Punjab, Haryana, northern Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh, has been experiencing deficient rains, especially in the post-monsoon period from October. The cumulative post-monsoon rainfall, as on December 26, was 68 per cent below the long period average for Punjab, with the corresponding shortage amounting to 57 per cent in Haryana, 51 per cent in West UP, 17 per cent in West Rajasthan and 40 per cent in East Rajasthan.

Although this contiguous region, which accounts for 55-60 per cent of the country's annual wheat output, received normal rains during the South-West monsoon season (June-September) as a whole, the rainfall activity, however, weakened considerably during the second half from around mid-August. Since then, the region has been going through an extended dry spell due to the weak intensity of the `western disturbances'. As a result, there has hardly been any winter rains so far.

But according to the Secretary, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Mr J.N.L. Srivastava, the current dry weather in North-West India is not a matter of real concern. ``Wheat is basically an irrigated crop. Inadequate rainfall should not cause problems because most wheat farmers have access to tubewells or canals for meeting their water requirement,'' he told Business Line.

The normal area under wheat is about 272 lakh hectares, of which 85 per cent is irrigated. The irrigation coverage is in the range of 94-98 per cent in Punjab, Haryana, West UP and Rajasthan, while being only around 70 per cent in the Central Indian wheat growing region of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat.

Wheat output fell to 68.46 million tonnes (mt) in 2000-01, after attaining record levels of 71.29 mt in 1998-99 and 75.57 mt in 1999-2000. The decline was mainly caused by a 25 lakh hectare shrinkage in area, particularly in M.P., where the severe drought conditions led to only 22-23 lakh hectares out of the State's normal wheat area of about 46 lakh hectares being sown. The total wheat area in the country fell from 274.3 lakh hectares in 1999-2000 to 249.6 lakh hectares last year.

As against this, the area sown under wheat this year has so far touched about 210 lakh hectares, which is 20 lakh hectares more than last year's corresponding coverage .``We have covered 77 per cent of the normal area as of now and it looks that the overall acreage will be normal this year,'' according to Krishi Bhawan officials.

The recovery in area has been mainly in M.P., where the progressive coverage has so far been nearly 10 lakh hectares higher than last year. Mr Srivastava, however, admitted that the wheat coverage in M.P. would still be about a million hectares below normal. ``The effect of last year's drought does not seem to have fully receded, particularly because of the early retreat of the South-West monsoon this time in the Malwa region. As a result, the early sown crop there is facing significant moisture stress, despite satisfactory post-monsoon rains in the State,'' said Dr S. Nagarajan, who heads the Directorate of Wheat Research, Karnal.

Apart from MP, the area under wheat is also said to have gone up considerably this year in eastern UP and Bihar. An estimated 85 per cent of the normal area in UP has already been covered, which is significant considering that sowing of wheat normally takes place quite late in eastern India. With the entire eastern belt experiencing good rains in both the monsoon as well as post-monsoon phase, farmers have been encouraged to plant more wheat this time.

``We can expect wheat production to cross the 70 mt level this time, even if does not touch the all-time high of 1999-2000,'' Dr Nagarajan added.

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