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Harihar Swarup

WITH the poll campaign in Punjab, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh having reached a crescendo and barely a couple of days to go before the crucial polling, it is time to look at the likely election results and the post-poll scenario.

Poll prediction is a dicey affair, but in the current elections, the outcome is somewhat discernable barring last minute surprises of course. In Punjab, the fight is between the ruling Akalis and the Congress(I), and in Uttaranchal, Sonia Gandhi's party is pitted against a beleaguered BJP. In sharp contrast, UP presents a different picture altogether with the Congress(I) nowhere in the reckoning. The BJP and Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi party are locked in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation and it appears almost certain that neither will get a clear majority. Mayawati's BSP is racing for the third slot.

The anti-incumbency factor weighs heavily against the Akalis in Punjab and reports suggest that the Congress(I) has an upper hand in spite of the dissension in the State unit of the party. Chances are that the latter may get a majority, primarily because of the unpopularity of the Akali rule and the trouble the Chief Minister, Mr Prakash Singh Badal, is facing from his own partymen and the rival factions of the Akali Dal.

The handicap for the Congress(I) in Uttaranchal is the rebellious candidates in the fray, many of whom, having been denied tickets, filed nominations as independents. The BJP's short rule, following the carving of the hill State, was marked by change of the Chief Minister, and the new incumbent had hardly any time to fulfil any of the promises made by his party when UP was bifurcated. Like the Congress(I), the BJP too faces intra-party squabbles, but the former has a slight edge as it does not face the anti-incumbency factor.

All eyes are, however, fixed on the outcome of elections to the UP Assembly because that may have some bearing on the BJP-led dispensation at the Centre. From all reckoning, the Assembly in the most populous State is going to be hung. Loud claims of the major political parties notwithstanding, the top leaders agree, in private, that there is no possibility of any party getting an absolute majority. Significantly, there is no worthwhile alliance or even poll adjustment between the major parties.

The fight, therefore, is to emerge the single largest party, and the tie for that slot is between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party. There is no denying that the UP elections are important for all the major players. It is almost a matter of do or die for the BJP while the future of the Congress(I) depends on it. For Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, it is a question of survival and everything is at stake for the BSP.

The Congress is far behind in this race. Hopes were raised of a Congress(I)- Samajwadi Party pact as Mr Mulayam Singh and his protege, Mr Amar Singh, exercised restraint on their no-holds-barred attack on the Congress(I) and Ms Sonia Gandhi. But, subsequently, both turned up at the Iftar hosted by Ms Sonia Gandhi at the AICC lawns. Hopes were belied, and the Congress(I) is going alone. The Congress(I) leadership, obviously, does not want to dilute the party's identity by becoming the hand-maiden of a regional party whose base is itself shaky.

The argument as, senior UP Congress(I) leader, Mr Salman Khurshid, puts it, is that the 117-year-old party may be down but it is not out and its root are much deeper than the SP's or the BSP's. Its identity, therefore, should not be merged with another party keeping in view the Lok Sabha elections.

Mr Mulayam Singh may not be able to set store by his Muslim vote-bank, as the minority community is getting somewhat disillusioned with the SP leader and may tilt back towards the Congress(I); this happened in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections too. Only, they may be disheartened by the plight of the party in the State. Had the Congress(I) local leadership convinced them that the party has winning chances, the Muslim voters might have shifted towards the SG party.

But the fact remains that at the State-level, there is a virtual vacuum in the Congress(I); the State set-up is too ramshackle to take advantage of the situation. The dilemma before the UP electorate is: Should it vote for a party that has no worthwhile State-level leadership and remote chance of winning respectable number of seats? The Congress(I) can be a player in the post-election scenario if it wins at least 50 seats. The party's poll managers, when they make a realistic assessment of electoral arithmetic, wonder if that will be possible. The BJP, which is going into the elections back to the wall pressured by the anti-incumbency factor, has somewhat stabilised its position.

Two factors are likely to help the BJP. First, the firm stand taken by the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, on the issue of terrorism and against Pakistan will, evidently, influence the electorate.

Second, the Chief Minister, Mr Rajnath Singh's "no nonsense'' style of functioning and the impression that he is the man in control of the situation, may have slightly eased the anti-incumbency pressure. Yet, the chances of the BJP securing a majority are remote.

The party may fall far short of the magical number which would enable it to form the government.

Mr Mulayam Singh is the most worried man with his vote bank disintegrating, raising doubt about his ability to push the SP to the position of the single largest party. The BJP, despite heavy odds, poses a strong challenge to the SP. Neither has no allies nor struck electoral alliance or even adjustments with any worthwhile party.

Ms Mayawati's BSP is yet another important contender but its base too has been eroded since the last elections. The Dalit and OBC voters no longer look to her as their saviour as they feel precious little for them. Platitudes can sustain a leader or a party but not for long. Ms Mayawati's strategy appears to be to form the government with the BJP but she is keeping all her options open. Chances of the BJP-BSP teaming up, post-election, cannot be ruled out. This will give the BJP the chance to say that it has not lost the most populous State, from where their Prime Minister is elected.

Except the Congress(I), the three main contenders — the BJP, the SP and the BSP — have projected their Chief Ministerial candidates — Mr Rajnath Singh, Mr Mulayam Singh and Ms Mayawati respectively.

The Samajwadi leader hopes to get Congress support after the elections to enable him to stake claim to form the government but that depends on the number of seats the two parties get.

Who will be the lucky horse? Only the results will tell.

(The author, a former Bureau chief of PTI, is a Delhi-based columnist.)

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