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Harish Damodaran

NEW DELHI, July 14

IT is turning out to be a rather uninspiring — if not disastrous — monsoon. Contrary to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) predictions of a 15th consecutive `normal' South-West monsoon this year, the rain gods have not been particularly kind so far, threatening to derail the prospects of an all-round economic recovery.

The country as a whole has received a mere 224.8 millimetres (mm) of area-weighted rainfall during the current monsoon season from June 1 till July 10, which is almost 15 per cent below the historical long period average (LPA) precipitation of 263.4 mm for this period. This, in fact, makes it a `deficient' monsoon, which is the case when actual rainfall falls below 90 per cent of the LPA at the all-India level and 80 per cent for individual sub-divisions.

Further, the monsoon has been bad even in terms of its distribution across regions. Twenty out of the country's 36 meteorological sub-divisions have received deficient rains, marking the worst rainfall performance in the last five years (see Table). Even among the 10 `normal' sub-divisions, rainfall has been below the LPA (though within the 20 per cent shortfall range) in five.

In other words, the rainfall has been below historical levels in as many as 25 out of the 36 sub-divisions. According to the IMD, the monsoon has been deficient in 40 per cent of the country's districts, while being `scanty' (i.e. shortfall exceeding 60 per cent) in 21 per cent. Another two per cent have registered `no rainfall' at all. Rainfall has been normal or excess only in the remaining 37 per cent districts.

The monsoon has been a complete failure in almost the whole of North India, covering Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh (both East and West) and stretching right up to Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Neither have the southern States been spared, be it Andhra Pradesh (with the exception of Rayalaseema), Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Orissa, too, has suffered deficient precipitation.

The only regions to have so far recorded satisfactory rainfall performance are West Bengal and Bihar (including Jharkhand) in the East and Maharashtra and Gujarat in the West. In what may seem an irony of circumstances, the entire Gujarat region, along with the usually parched Saurashtra-Kutch belt, has received excess rainfall this time, even as the rest of the country reels under an intense dry spell.

Agriculture Ministry officials admit that the monsoon's failure during the crucial phase, just after the kharif crop has been sown, would impact production. In many cases, farmers would have to delay or even re-start sowing, which means planting shorter duration varieties with lower yields. Moreover, even if sowing takes place now, there has to be adequate moisture availability for the plant's subsequent growth phase.

``We are hoping for an end to the current weak spell, especially over the last two weeks'', the officials said. The coming week could very well decide the fate of this year's crop. Interestingly, the situation last year was quite the opposite, with the monsoon arriving well in time and its excellent first month performance boosting kharif-sowing operations. But after this headstart, the monsoon activity petered out.

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Monsoon deficient till date — May blow away hopes of economic recovery

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