Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Friday, Aug 16, 2002
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Friday, Aug 16, 2002 |
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Industry & Economy
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Power Crisil downbeat on power capacity Our Bureau
MUMBAI, Aug. 15 PLANNED capacity additions in power during the Tenth Plan will fall way short of the targeted 41,000 MW, according to Crisil. It has also predicted a fall in demand growth for power over the next five years. In a report published recently, the rating agency has predicted a substantial shortfall; only 28,000 to 29,000 MW capacity additions are expected in the Tenth Plan. The agency believes that power demand growth would be lower than the 6.33 per cent forecasted by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission. The report has attributed the fall in demand to increasing share of non-energy-intensive services sector and decreasing energy wastage in the country. This is reflected in the decline in the elasticity of power consumption with respect to the GDP from 1.88 during the Fifth Plan to 0.97 during the Eighth Plan. The report also predicts an increase in power availability because of improvement in plant load factor of old power plants because of modernisation, renovation and increased capacity of inter-regional transmission links. Most of the capacity build-up would come from the Central power utilities while the private sector may face constraints related to payment security, fuel supply, transport and high tariffs, according to the report. The report forecasts that the thrust of Government policies on distribution reforms would lead to private distribution companies accounting for 50 to 70 per cent power sold to final consumers in 2006-07 against five per cent today. Private and public sector investments will increase inter-regional transmission to 9,000 MW from 4,800 MW and is expected to lead to higher capacity utilisation of plants in the Eastern region. The estimates are based on the present status of major public and private sector power projects across the country.
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