The Hindu Business Line : AIDS vaccine in 8-15 years, says scientist

RECENT setbacks notwithstanding, a potent vaccine to prevent the deadly Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) virus from wrecking havoc on human populations, would be developed in the next 8-15 years, according to Sir Gustav Nossal, an Australian scientist.

The reports that the first generation vaccine of Vaxgen Inc, the US vaccine producer, had proved ineffective at the `clinical trials' stage as well as the failure of the more modern Australian vaccine developed by the firm Virax on animals, have come as a big blow, the immunologist told Business Line.

These events are "short-term pessimism, but hold out optimism in the long term". The failure of the vaccines is enough short-term disappointment because considerable investments and global efforts have gone into finding a potent vaccine.

However, the positive side is that many good ideas, initiatives and multi-billion dollar investments had been committed.

Armed with enough basic knowledge about the AIDS virus, these concerted research projects would lead to the development of a vaccine in just over a decade, Sir Gustav, who is currently in India as Chairman of the Strategic Advisory Council of the Bill and Melinda Gates Children's Vaccine Programme, said.

In the Indian context, where AIDS is surging as a potential killer, the best option was for the Government to go in for preventive public health policies, which include a massive awareness drive and safe sex practises, especially in the vulnerable teenage groups, Sir Gustav, a former President of the International Union of Immunologists, said.

Along with AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria were the three major killer diseases for which a vaccine is evading the international scientific community.

"These pathogens are proving to be very clever and difficult, sometime more clever than us humans," he quipped.

On the positive side, however, vaccines for cervical cancers in women, Japanese encephalitis (brain fever), dengue fever, rotavirus and streptococcus pneumonia (a form of acute respiratory infection) are well within sight and would be available over the next couple of years, Sir Gustavsaid.

Referring to the recent reports of the SARS virus that has been spreading in the Asian countries, he felt that it does not seem to be very infectious as the incidence is rather small and confined.

One of the important missions for Sir Gustav during the current visit to the country is to forge Australia-India collaborations in the field of biotechnology.

He has already met top scientists at Ranbaxy in New Delhi, the President, Dr A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, Shantha Biotech, Indian immunologicals, Bharat Biotech in Hyderabad and the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, Mr N. Chandrababu Naidu.

Vaccine production would be an economically viable business proposition for companies with a strong R&D base. For Indian companies producing vaccines on a cost-competitive scale and entering the global market, the opportunities are good.

Already, the Pune-based Serum Institute of India was exporting low-cost vaccines and giving the multinational corporations a run for their money, he said.

At present, a third of the populations of the developing countries do not get basic vaccines. Industrialised countries are not inclined to give them.

The options are the World Bank, which is giving loans through the IDA, old-fashioned multilateral funding or through foundations such as the Melinda and Gates.

Therefore, cost-effective vaccines could find favour and a growing market, Sir Gustav said.

Overseas assistance in any of the above forms can at best get a programme going. A constant expectation to get such aid can create problems. Hence, countries need to increase investments in healthcare and build indigenous skills to sustain especially in India, which has the R&D and the delivery network, he said.

The Australian scientist argued that improved health in countries like India could contribute massively to economic development as well as save millions of lives.

The global investment of $31 billion a year would not only save 8 million lives a year but could reap economic gains of $186 billion a year.

Referring to the excitement over genomics, Sir Gustav said, "We have a genome map of the human being, we need to develop an encyclopaedia, before the full impact of its benefits can start emerging." At present, we do not know the functions of many genes, therefore I am very excited, but reluctant when people go over board, he said.

Knowledge of the human genome will revolutionise medicine, but it will take about 25 years to feel the real impact. Investors in biotechnology should know to be patient.

Speculation will not bring in heavy returns is his gut feeling.

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