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WITH MUCH OF eastern Asia sneezing, India was bound to catch the fever. The 11 confirmed SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) cases have put paid to the Health Minister's claim that the "quick" discovery and action to isolate the first set of patients had proved the alertness of the system. Obviously, the screening process was not foolproof; better defences have to be put in place. With proper and timely care, SARS can be dealt with effectively, says the World Health Organisation. But this is little consolation when, after over 260 deaths and some 4000 in hospitals or quarantined, WHO is yet to confirm the causative agent of the pandemic, making treatment a trial-and-error affair. Now there is also new evidence that the virus may spread through air and/or water, and not just contact, as previously thought.

The virus that has debilitated the Far East may well bring the world economy, yet to recover from 9/11 and the Afghan and the Iraq wars, to its knees. The SARS effect may be more telling as it has happened in the one part of the world that has shown some growth; the global growth figures may be lowered some more. In its latest outlook for the region, the World Bank says: "While we had...expected East Asian growth to accelerate a little during 2003, we now expect it to fall by almost a percentage point to 5 per cent...Projections for 2003 are even more uncertain... because of great uncertainties about the impact of SARS outbreak... " Many countries in the area may be affected as the intra-regional trade in goods and services has grown significantly. The intra-Asian trade, which accounted for over 22.4 per cent of Asean's global transactions in 2001, may fall dramatically. FDI flows in the region are largely sourced from within, and this can get affected, as the rising incidence of SARS may curb industry/business restructuring, at least in the short term, mainly because of the impact on human resource flows. For India, FICCI and CII think SARS, more than the Iraq war, is of real concern.

In a world rapidly becoming seamless, and people quickly and constantly crossing borders, such outbreaks of epidemics invariably cut a swathe across a region and impact such diverse areas as banking and finance, retail trade, leisure and entertainment business, airlines, hospitality and tourism. SARS has badly hit the travel and tourism industry, which accounts for a sizeable proportion of GDP in the region. Hotel occupancy in Hong Kong and Singapore is down, while tourism and restaurant sectors have reported a 20 per cent decline. In Thailand, the damage to travel and tourism industry is estimated at 40-70 billion baht. India too will take a hit if it lowers its guard, but for now it can use this opportunity to boost domestic tourism.

With the health of economies so predicated on the health of the people, governments need to react quickly to tackle these outbreaks. Multilateral agencies too must develop models for such situations. For India, this is a good time to shore up the public health system, the spending on which has been declining. SARS may well be the opportunity to do for the country what the plague did for Surat — clean up the health act. Indeed, health is wealth.

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