The Hindu Business Line : Security implications of demographic aggression

ALTHOUGH the continuous arrival of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants has serious security implications for India, the issue has so far been inadequately understood at best or is considered a "local problem'' at worst.

The former Home Minister, Mr Inderjit Gupta, had stated that there were more than one crore Bangladeshis illegally residing in India. According to Mr R. N. Bhattacharya, Inspector-General of BSF, in charge of South Bengal Frontier, "every 15th resident in West Bengal is a Bangladeshi." Each year about two lakh foreigners enter India illegally and settle down. To these, one should add those who enter with forged travel documents or even with valid ones but do not return to their country. The Bangladeshi immigrants are not only found in Assam and West Bengal but have also moved into various parts of India from Punjab to Bombay, from Nagaland to Orissa.

The long and porous borders give an easy passage to the infiltrators. The West Bengal-Bangladesh border 2217-km has over a hundred known points of infiltration. Another reason for the continuous illegal immigration is the absence of any punitive measures against it. Moreover, the language factor, age-old ties, the presence of a large minority population in the border villages, the nexus between the illegal immigrants and the fundamentalist organisations and, above all, the vote-bank politics of the political parties are all responsible for this permissive attitude.

Are immigrants swarming the North-East a security risk? According to a senior Army officer, who served in the north-eastern area, in seven States Hindus are in minority — Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab and the five North-Eastern States. He predicts that if the current trend of Bangladeshi infiltration continues, within 10 years, Assam will become the eighth State where the Hindus will be in minority.

The political implications of this are grave. In the not-too-distant future, the infiltrators may well form the majority in the State Assembly. A study by a Kolkata Institute in 1989 found that the Bangladeshi immigrants were in a position to decisively influence over 52 Assembly constituencies, while in another 100, they could appreciably influence the outcome. This means that in about 50 per cent of the 294 Assembly constituencies of West Bengal, the Bangladeshi immigrants could play an important role.

The infiltrators outnumbering the locals too have serious security implications.

At the height of the Khalistan movement in Punjab, thousands of Hindus were turned out to seek shelter elsewhere in India. More recently, lakhs of Pandits have been driven out of Kashmir and hardly anyone espouses their cause.

Moreover, at the rate at which infiltration continues, there is a distinct danger that, in the near future, the infiltrators would demand a referendum on a merger with Bangladesh or set up another Muslim country speaking Bengali predominantly in the eastern part of India. With Bangladesh in the East and South of West Bengal; and Nepal and Bhutan in the North-West and North; and with China straddling the entire region further North, not to mention Myanmar in the East; this region would pose an extraordinary geo-political challenge to India.

Another security implication is that it has given rise to a number of fundamentalists forces, primarily for defending the interest of Bangladeshi migrants. According to Mr T. V. Rajeshwar, former Governor of West Bengal, organisations such as the Muslim Liberation Tigers of Assam, the Muslim Liberation Army and the Muslim Liberation Force have been formed for this purpose.

To him, some of these outfits have even announced their objective of creating an independent Islamic state in Assam. Historian H. K. Borpujari, thinks that these organisations have given the ISI of Pakistan and international fundamentalist forces a solid base to destabilise the country.

Thus, there is no doubt that the Bangladeshi immigrants pose a serious threat to our security. Political parties, in general, and the Centre, in particular, should rise above their electoral interests and take immediate steps on this vital issue to safeguard India's national interest.

(The author teaches India's Foreign Policy and International Politics at the Post-Graduate Department of Political Science, Dyal Singh College, Karnal, Haryana.)

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