The Hindu Business Line : India-China relations: On slow burn

THE Defence Minister, Mr George Fernandes' recent visit to China was important as it took place soon after new leaders took over the reins in Beijing, and also because he had cited the Chinese threat as a reason for Pokhran II. Interestingly, the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, told the Lok Sabha that India's nuclear weapons programme is not "Pakistan-specific", and that New Delhi has to take into account the environment in "neighbouring nations".

He was making the point that unlike Pakistan's "India-centric" nuclear programme, India's security concerns are wider and, therefore, Pakistan's proposal for the "denuclearisation" of South Asia is not acceptable. However, China would have preferred a nuclear-free South Asia.

The Defence Minister's trip had been on the cards for several months, especially after March 2002 when the then External Affairs Minister, Mr Jaswant Singh visited the country and inaugurated direct air links between India and China. The Foreign Ministers of the two nations also agreed on a "timeframe" to clarify the Line of Actual Control (LOAC) which has separated the two countries after the 1962 border war.

The joint expert group — created under the landmark Agreement on Peace and Tranquillity in border areas, signed during the former Prime Minister, Mr P. V. Narasimha Rao's visit to Beijing in 1993 — was to have exchanged the maps of the border's western sector by 2002 before taking up the eastern sector this year. This has not happened.

The exchange of the middle sector's maps took place early last year. The 1993 agreement explicitly stated that reference to the LOAC did not prejudice the respective position of the two countries on the boundary. The two countries were to continue the search for a "fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable settlement" of the boundary question. That search goes on with painful slowness.

The Defence Minister's visit was, thus, in the nature of building on friendly relations with China — a huge modern military power and economic giant with a significant share of global trade, capital flows and reserves. The "reasonable timeframe" for the delineation of the LOAC has not been spelt out so far, despite India's emphasis on it at various high-level visits, including that of the former President, Mr K.R. Narayanan, in 2000.

China regards the border problem as a legacy of the past, which requires "time and patience", and one which should not be allowed to stand in the way of the two nations realising the potential of cooperation in all fields of development.

Mr Fernandes' visit has added a dimension of interface between the armed forces of the two countries following discussions with his Chinese counterpart.

The upshot of the Defence Minister's China visit is that the two countries agreed to sustain the LOAC clarification processes, enhance cooperation in combating terrorism, and strengthen the ongoing bilateral cooperation in several spheres.

The Chinese leaders appear to be satisfied with the progress on the border issue, citing stability in the area and mutual trust and understanding between the two military forces. Mr Fernandes feels that his meetings with the Chinese leaders went on well, and that it will provide the beginning of a road map for greater interactions of the two defence forces. One has to wait and see whether the Prime Minister's visit to China later this year yields more results.

However, for the present, India has to reckon with the reality of "all weather" friendship between China and Pakistan. Renewing their military ties, the two countries signed a Charter on Bilateral Cooperation in the field of defence, industry and technology on April 2.

China has taken the stand that disputes between India and Pakistan must be settled bilaterally, and has indicated that it will not take sides. The Indian hypothesis is that with both countries growing economically, and increasing bilateral and multilateral cooperation, the two nations are less likely to involve themselves in a military conflict. At the same time, the far stronger economic and military strength of China is regarded as a potential challenge over the next two decades. The India-Pakistan hostility adds a complicating element to the evolution of closer friendly relations between Asia's two large powers with over 2.3 billion people.

It is in the economic sphere, therefore, that Sino-Indian relations should seek a comfort level and grow with considerable mutual advantage. There is also a great deal of convergence between the two countries on refashioning the international economic order. It is expected that they will, in concert with other developing countries, make efforts to secure results in the Doha Round of multilateral trade talks which will reflect the needs and concerns of the developing countries.

China's pragmatism has helped it leap forward over the last two decades, and it has successfully weathered a series of shocks, including high inflation due to overheating of the economy in the early l990s. Maintaining a high growth of 7-8 per cent and expanding the exports, it became the fifth largest trader in 2002 with a 5 per cent share of global export.

Currently under the cloud of SARS, China's growth will slowdown by some 1 per cent. The region as a whole is estimated to lose $15-16 billion in output of goods and services. The world GDP expansion and trade recovery in recent years has been sustained by China along with some Asian and transition economies. China is also importing more to meet the rise in domestic consumption and infrastructure spending. The impressive growth in intra-regional trade among Asian developing countries, and the moves for free trade by ASEAN with both China and India point to the intensification of trade and investment flows in the near future. This can well reduce the region's dependence on the US and the EU markets for export-led growth.

(The author, a former Chief Editor of PTI, is a freelance writer.)

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