The Hindu Business Line : Wheat, coarse grains supplies to be comfortable

COARSE grain production and use in 2003-04 are expected to be in balance and world trade may be marginally down from the previous year, while stocks, especially in the US, are slated to increase.

In wheat, new estimates for 2003-04 show an increased shortfall in world production compared with use, but much of the fall in stocks will be in China. Supplies in major exporters should be adequate to meet a subdued level of world import demand, even though exports from the CIS and India will be much less than in 2002-03.

World coarse grains output is forecast at 922 million tonnes (mt), 55 mt up from 867 mt of 2002-03, while world trade will decline marginally to 104 mt, according to the latest estimate of the London-based International Grains Council (IGC).

Maize (corn) output in the US will be considerably higher if favourable weather continues. Argentina's maize crop also should be larger, while barley in Canada and Australia should recover from last year's drought. Maize and barley crops in the EU will increase, but Russia's will be down, IGC said.

World consumption is forecast to grow by 23 mt to 923 mt. The EU coarse grains use will recover because of lower feed wheat availabilities, and improved barley supplies will boost feeding in Canada and the CIS. Total industrial use will reach a record 110 mt due to expansion of ethanol production in the US. Better harvests in India and sub-Saharan Africa will increase food use of coarse grains, according to IGC.

In wheat, further evidence of weather damage in Russia and Ukraine has resulted in a cut of some 8 mt in world production forecast since last month. For 2003-04 world wheat output is forecast at 582 mt (566 mt) while consumption may be down 3 mt to 599 mt as reduced feed use in Europe and the CIS will offset higher food use in developing countries.

World wheat trade is forecast lower at 99 mt (103 mt). The EU's feed wheat imports will be much lower under the new tariff quota system, while good crops in North Africa and Near East Asia will limit their import needs, IGC pointed out.

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