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Jayanthi Iyengar

MUCH has been written in the run-up to Cancun and much will be written after the event, when ministers of 146 countries begin their next round of deliberations at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Wednesday. Yet, so little energy has been spent on remembering and acknowledging the contribution of Mr Murasoli Maran, former Commerce and Industry Minister and Indian trade negotiator par excellence, who gave Indians the self-confidence to believe that it is possible to negotiate to their advantage at the international trade forum even from a position of comparative weakness. He is also undoubtedly one of the leading icons of his time who helped the developing countries realise that the right to bargain aggressively without being defensive was theirs, irrespective of whether they won or lost the race to global dominance through trade.

Those who have followed the trade negotiations before Doha will tell you that developing nations not only lacked the requisite skills — so poor was the state of affairs that the multilateral organisations provided negotiators to some of the African countries — but also lacked the basic faith in their right to negotiate. The growing disillusionment with capitalism in the developed nations, the emergence of the non-governmental organisations (NGOs) as an anti-liberalisation force to reckon with at trade negotiations and the new leadership in the developing countries, which believed the WTO was as much a forum to safeguard their interests as it was of the developed countries, brought the basic realisation that gains from trade could be notched for the poorer East even after Marrakesh.

This was despite the conventional thought, often spouted by leaders like the former Commerce Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, that rules of the game had already been drawn and sealed in favour of the developed countries in Marrakesh and developing nations of Asia, Africa and Latin America had little choice but take the cards as they fell.

Those who know Mr Maran and worked closely with him during the negotiations today speak highly of many of his stellar qualities, which they saw amply during Doha. This includes hard work despite illness, basic understanding of issues and an intrinsic recognition of how the new world order worked.

Yet, they speak most of his ability to sense the winds of change that were blowing in Geneva at a time when the Swadeshi lobby's single most contribution was to scream "Shame! Shame!", while the rest of intelligentsia tended to be sceptical about what a poor nation like India could do, when faced by the combined might and negotiating prowess of the US and European Union (EU).

Mr Maran ardently believed that it was possible to turn this zero sum game into a win-win situation for the developed and developing nations despite all the odds. It was this faith that generated awe and confidence down the line in the team that accompanied him. Mr Maran persistence paid.

Today, while some negotiation watchers would be dismissive of the claims of gains made by developing East at Doha, few would be uncharitable enough to dismiss Mr Maran's contributions as a unconventional thinker who had the ability to think outside the box at a time when the general clamour went, "It can't be done".

As Cancun draws close, the Commerce Minister, Mr Arun Jaitley's preoccupation would be centred around the kind of hard bargaining that lies ahead of him on five core issues — agricultural subsidies, market access in services, manufacture of patented drugs, and keeping out Singapore issues such as investments and competition — but time has yet again come to take a leaf out of Mr Maran's book.

Mr Jaitley would undoubtedly join hands with other developing nations to pressure the powerful West into reducing, if not phasing out agricultural subsidies, as he would press for the opening up market access to Indian service providers and the freedom to outsource BPO.

Yet, like Mr Maran, his greater challenge may lie more in thinking ahead and thinking Red, rather than just toeing the conventional line at the Cancun. If one looks at the WTO today, the single most significant change that has taken place since the last round of negotiations has been the assimilation of China into the new trade order.

It would be to India's advantage to use Cancun not only as the forum for negotiations, but also to make it the venue for forging ties with China for the creation of Sino-Indian trading block, where the two, most populous countries in the world could unite on mutually beneficially trading issues, while battling it out on competitive matters. This is what the US and the EU do, fighting bitter battles on issues that directly impact them but presenting an impregnable, united front when it comes to matters that concern the rest of the world.

Thus, while the two, at present, are at loggerheads on the phasing out of agricultural subsidies, they are one when it comes to trying to force new trade issues such as investment and competition on the rest of the world at the forthcoming round. The concept of an Indo-Sino trading bloc is by itself is not unconventional, for many in India have talked of the creation of such a monolith ever since New Delhi resumed diplomatic ties with Beijing.

Yet, these thoughts have largely remained on the drawing board only because few in India have dared to visualise an Sino-Indian trade alliance, where the bigger and mightier China would take on the lead role, while the smaller and strategically-less significant India would follow suit. Acceding a trade leadership to the Chinese may be a tough philosophy to expound at a time when India is poised for a slew of state and general elections.

A sense of national pride is undeniably a good sentiment to harbour. Yet, when it comes to the rest of the world, it is China, not India, which matters. It would thus be in India's interest to recognise this harsh reality and align with China, rather than battle it out with the weaker Africa and Latin America on its side. It is here that Mr Jaitley could play as stellar a role as Mr Maran, provided he grasps the significance of the new trade realities as did his predecessor and melds opportunities thrown up by global developments to India's advantage.

(The author, a freelance writer, can be contacted at jayanthiiyengar1@yahoo.com)

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