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Friday, Sep 26, 2003


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Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

BULLS exerted further pressure during the initial hours of Thursday's trading activity. Thereafter, bears took control of the day's proceedings.

Neither the bulls nor the bears could gain much from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly in favour the bulls.

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Bear domination on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: Initially, the October contract moved by 12 points. Later on, bears took over and wiped out their losses. The October contract closed around its previous close.

The sideways trend in the October contract remains intact. Bullish and bearish trigger levels for the October contract are still placed quite far away from its current level. In the normal course of trading on Friday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. The top three traded counters in this segment were Satyam Computer, Reliance Industries and Tata Steel. Trading activity in Hindustan Petro was quite hectic with more than 4300 trades.

Except for Hindustan Petro, all the other counters in the list are in the sideways mode. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to terminate the uptrend in Hindustan Petro. Traders are left with ample opportunities for Friday's trading.

Five opportunities are likely to exist on the short side and six on the long side. Selling in State Bank is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. Its bearish trigger level is placed closer to its last traded price. Bear move on Friday is likely to trigger this level.

Cash Segment: The top-10 tradable list in this segment underwent a change. Ranbaxy gained entry with the exit of Tata Engg. The ranking of the list had some changes.

Satyam Computer moved to the top slot followed by Hindustan Petro and SAIL. The uptrend in Tata Engg is likely to be terminated at 288.45.

None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. Except for the uptrend in BPCL, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in Reliance Industries, State Bank and Tata Steel. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys and SAIL.

For Friday, the best bet is likely to be the Selling in State Bank. This counter is in the uptrend. Its exit and sell levels are placed very close to its current level. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to reverse the prevailing uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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