The Hindu Business Line : Iraq... where there are more questions than answers

ONE of the saddest and, perhaps in the long term, the most horrific, aspects of the ouster of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq is the push the country seems to be getting in the direction of religious fundamentalism. About 60 per cent of the country's population is Shia, with the Sunnis (Saddam Hussein is a Sunni) component being just 30 per cent and the remaining composed of Kurds, Christians and other religious minorities.

The Shias, traditionally the more orthodox among Muslims, have been repressed for long years in Iraq, and their religious rights curtailed brutally by an autocratic Saddam Hussein, who ironically enough, was also modern and liberal in outlook. But now that he is no longer there, and the prospects of his return next to remote, the Shias are getting ready to grab power in Iraq. In such holy cities as Karbala and Najaf, Shia-dominated local governments are already in place. One very visible result of this change can be seen in the transformation of women from living, thinking and vibrant individuals to just bundles of black cloth.

But more of that later.

In this backdrop, it is one more reason for the US to drag its feet over a quick withdrawal of coalition forces and handing Iraq back for governance by the Iraqis. The US Secretary of State, Mr Colin Powell, speaking last fortnight against the background of the revised US resolution on Iraq, said that a "hasty transition in Iraq" from US occupation to local civilian rule could be dangerous and would be instrumental in Iraq becoming a "failed state".

While the rest of the world, especially opponents of the war like Russia, Germany and France, sniggers at such statements from the Bush administration, as continued American presence in Iraq, where a huge reconstruction is just beginning, means big business, there are subtle grounds realities to be considered too. The reconstruction itself, according to an estimate by the World Bank, is likely to cost around $55 billion over four years. The Bush administration has already asked the Congress for a whopping $20.3 billion for Iraq's reconstruction. Officials in the Bush administration have ruled out this being given as a loan rather than a grant, because despite Iraq's oil riches, the country, crippled by long years of UN sanctions, is in no position to return this huge amount. On the other hand, argue these officials, Iraqi debts need a dose of "generous restructuring."

But apart from its interest in oil and huge reconstruction contracts in Iraq, one headache for the Americans is the Sunni-Shia tussle for power, with the hawkish Kurds watching from the sidelines in the north. The Americans have been touting for long their desire to return Iraq to the path of democracy. But when an election is held, the Shia majority is bound to return a Shia-dominated administration to power. If and when that happens, the women of Baghdad and other major cities of Iraq can kiss good-bye to the freedom they enjoyed, at least in comparison to repressive Islamic regimes. For instance, women in Iraq played football and other games, enjoyed similar levels of education as men, and worked along with men in various professions. And, they were active investors too. In fact, the Baghdad Stock Exchange one became famous for a trading ring exclusively for women.

But in a Shia-led government it is doubtful that women will enjoy unfettered freedom or power. The Americans who had, while "liberating" Iraq, said they wold take its women towards a "liberal, modern society", did their bit in appointing three women to Iraq's 25-member Governing Council. But one of the women, a Shia Muslim, has already been assassinated in a bomb attack The tasks before the Governing Council are mammoth; the first one being to draft a new Constitution to determine the kind of government Iraq will eventually have. But the Governing Council has been bickering over even this preliminary step. Experts on Iraq say that there is so much diversity within the committee and so much bickering over what shape the final Constitution should take, that even six months may not be sufficient for the Council to come up with some kind of a solid draft, which will eventually have to be okayed by their present masters, the Americans.

Among the several decisions this Council will have to take, an important one would be on whether Iraq would be ruled by one strong ruler under a presidential system, or if will there be collective sharing of leadership? If a single leader, will he — it will take long years for a `she' to aspire to that post — be elected by Parliament or directly by the people? Also, it will have to be decided whether it will be a winner-takes-all kind of system or will there be proportionate representation given to the various groups. Will the Kurds, who are demanding a federal structure, get their wish or will they once against have to remain a festering minority with limited rights and even less power?

Another major problem in Iraq pertains to the various local militias that are unconstitutional but continue to wield power in pockets and hope to be legitimised under the new regime. If they are to be disbanded, there is bound to be a revolt and violence in a country which has seen too much of both in the last two decades. From the gender perspective, the most important issue to be thrashed out will pertain to the kind of role religion and Sharia will play in the new government. Will the new Iraqi regime follow a secular law or will the Islamic laws govern the kinds of punishments to be handed over to those who violate the law?

As for the women, whereas the educated and upper class Iraqi women in Baghdad continue to dress as elegantly and stylishly as they did before, with just a scarf thrown over their heads, in the Shia strongholds of Karbala and Najaf, they have already been reduced to bundles of black cloth.

The passing over of control from the Sunni Iraqi administration to local provincial government, which is Shia dominated, has meant a much stricter dress code for women. Women, both pilgrims and residents, have to be covered from head to toe. The burqa — which does not necessarily have to cover the face — is mandatory and comprises a scarf that must be tied on the forehead in such a way that not a strand of hair is seen.

Head and body totally covered, with long sleeves and a loose black gown or chadar, and feet covered with socks or stockings, women move as dark shadows, always walking a few steps behind the men, not talking much, unless in the women's sections of the religious shrines of Imam Hussein and Hazrat Ali in Karbala and Najaf respectively.

At these shrines, during the Saddam Hussein regime men and women could offer their respects and prayers together, but now they are strictly segregated, with hardly one third or one-fourth of the shrines designated as areas for women, resulting in undue jostling and pushing. There are separate entrances and exits for men and women, and even on roads one hardly finds men and women conversing.

At the moment, the people of Iraq have too many questions before them with no clue to the answers. Already the euphoria that Saddam Hussein is gone is over and people in many areas are becoming restive that their lives have not improved at all.

Though problems such as power and petrol shortage, lack of enough food and medical facilities have been sorted out in small pockets, particularly in these Shia cities, in the capital Baghdad, the population, obviously being more educated and aware of their rights, is asking for more from the occupiers.

So, what does the future hold for Iraq? In Baghdad when I posed this question to Haider, a shopkeeper, he raised his hands to the heavens as if to say: God alone knows. Similar was the gesture, asked when the Americans would leave.

Of course, the main question is whether the occupiers will leave Baghdad at all, at least for some years. Noted anti-Bush American intellectual, Noam Chomsky, even before the attack on Iraq began, had said in an interview that "Bush is probably irrelevant. But the people around him have a record. They are recycled Reganites. That is why the media and intellectuals scrupulously ignore what they did whey they were running the first "war on terror" that they declared 20 years ago. Better not to remember the horror stories for which they were responsible."

He then gives the example of every human being, who, unless a "saintly figure" having done things he/she knew were wrong, even if it was something as trivial as snatching your younger sibling's toy "because you are stronger than he is".

Echoing a similar sentiment, Hyder said, "Iraqis can't throw out the Americans because we are a weak people; made weak by both Saddam and America."

Response can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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