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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Oct. 15

THE India Meteorological Department (IMD) has formally announced that the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from the entire country as of Wednesday.

This will pave the way for the onset of the northeast monsoon, also called reverse monsoon, bringing thunder activity and rain to the southern States, especially Kerala and Karnataka.

According to the IMD, Tuesday's upper air cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood had become less marked.

However, the Bay of Bengal was slowly getting onto the active mode with an upper air cyclonic circulation, extending up to 3.1 km above sea level, over the Andaman Sea, and yet another one over southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, extending up to 4.5 km above sea level.

Mr M. D. Ramachandran, Director, Met Office, Thiruvananthapuram, told Business Line that conditions had turned to `neutral' and were now favourable for the onset of northeast monsoon.

The trigger would lie in one of the Bay systems intensifying, which could happen any time. The behaviour of the Bay systems is being closely monitored, he said.

The southwest monsoon this year was earlier declared `above normal' with a cumulative precipitation of 102 per cent during the period from June 1 to September 30.

Only three meteorological sub-divisions returned `deficient' precipitation - North Interior Karnataka (-35 per cent), South Interior Karnataka (-26 per cent) and Kerala (-32 per cent). This was the second consecutive season that the southwest monsoon failed Kerala.

Seven sub-divisions recorded excess precipitation. They were Saurashtra (+29 per cent), Gujarat region (+20 per cent), Western Rajasthan (+22 per cent), Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi (+20 per cent), Western Uttar Pradesh (+28 per cent), Eastern Madhya Pradesh (+20 per cent) and Chhattisgarh (+20 per cent). The precipitation was `normal' in the rest (26 sub-divisions).

The northeast monsoon is an important source of water for south peninsular India and Sri Lanka. While the summer monsoon accounts for most of the annual rainfall over a large part of India, the southeast peninsular Indian regional falls under a rain-shadow area during this season.

Therefore, this region critically depends on the northeast monsoon to supplement the inadequate summer monsoon rainfall. Tamil Nadu, which is at the core of the northeast monsoon region, receives nearly 50 per cent of the annual rainfall during this season.

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