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Thursday, Oct 16, 2003

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Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

BEARS extended their pressure during the initial hours of Wednesday's trading activity. Later on, bulls gained control of the day's proceedings. The market sentiment reading of the tradeable counters stands neutral. Bull domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, it is like to turn bearish.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial hours of trading, the near month October contract lost 19 points. Thereafter, bulls made a strong come back and recouped their losses. The October contract moved within a wide band of 50 points. It closed with a gain of 30 points with respect to previous close.

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Bears were successful to the extent of terminating the uptrend in the October contract. The long position exited with a substantial profit of 127 points. In the normal course of trading on Thursday, the sideways trend is likely to continue. However, further bull domination has the potential to re-instate the uptrend in the October contract. Bearish trigger level for the October contract remains unchanged.

Stock futures recommendation: The top-10 tradeable list in this segment had a change. M&M gained entry with the exit of ONGC. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes. The exit level for the short position in ONGC is placed at 628.85.

For Thursday, the downtrend in Infosys and State Bank are likely to be under threat. The prevailing uptrend counters in the list are likely to be safe. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, M&M, Reliance Industries and State Bank. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in Hindustan Petro.

The best among the above is likely to be Reliance Industries. This counter is in the sideways mode. Its bullish trigger level is placed very close to its current level.

Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger this level.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradeable list underwent a change. Wipro gained entry with the exit of SCI. The ranking of the list had a change. Infosys and Tata Steel interchanged their positions. The uptrend in SCI is likely to terminate at 120.05.

For Thursday, the downtrend in Digital and Wipro are likely to be under threat.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in Infosys, Reliance Industries, State Bank and Tata Engineering. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Hindustan Petro. Buying in Reliance Industries is likely to be the best bet for Thursday's trading. Its buy level is placed closer to its last traded price.

Bull move on Thursday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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