The Hindu Business Line : Global cotton output to trail offtake

GLOBAL cotton production will trail consumption for the second year in a row. Cotton prices have firmed up in recent weeks despite a forecast 7.4 per cent increase in output and a mere one per cent increase in consumption for 2003-04.

The A-Index, the principal measure of international cotton prices closed at 66.75 cents per pound by end-September, up 3.03 cents from previous month average.

World cotton production in 2003-04 is forecast at 20.57 million tonnes, up 7.4 per cent from 19.16 mt of last year, while consumption is placed at 21.44 mt (21.22 mt), the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.

Both China and India are harvesting bigger crops. Estimate of India's cotton output is placed 2.72 mt, up 18 per cent from last year's 2.31 mt

while consumption is forecast to rise by 1.5 per cent to 2.94 mt.

USDA said, India's short crop in 2002-03 forced them to increase imports towards the end of the season; but with the expected rebound in the 2003-04 crop, need for imports will decrease causing a slowdown in US cotton exports.

India's closing stock last season had reached a recent low of 7.3 lakh tonnes, but is expected to rise by 6 per cent to 7.7 lt by the end of the current season.

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