The Hindu Business Line : Edible oil imports seen declining

EDIBLE oil imports into the country are projected to decline by eight lakh tonnes (lt) to 10 lt during the oil year 2003-04 (November-October) in view of better oilseed production and rising international prices, industry experts say.

``Edible oil imports could easily decline by 8 lakh tonnes if the rapeseed production also increases like the other oilseed crops,'' Mr Sandeep Bajoria, Chairman, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade, (COOIT) told Business Line.

Other experts such as Mr B.V. Mehta, Secretary-General, Solvent Extractors Association of India, feel the decline in imports could be as much as10 lt. As per projections made by various industry players at COOIT's All-India Convention of Oilseeds and Trade, imports could be around 41 lt during the current oil year as against an estimated 51.5 lt last year. Production of kharif oilseeds this year is seen at a record 142.4 lt from 88.1 lt last year. Rapeseed production, according to some of the experts, could touch 80 lakh tonnes against 33 lakh tonnes last year. Rapeseed is sown during rabi season beginning second half of October. As per the Agriculture Ministry, oilseeds coverage for rabi is already up 16lakh hectares over last year to 36 lt. In the case of rapeseed, it is up 9 lt at 23 lt. ``Rapeseed sowing has begun soon in view of good soil moisture in the aftermath of widespread monsoon. The coverage has also been good and is expected to increase sharply,'' Mr Mehta said. According to the Madhya Pradesh Agriculture Department officials, with good climate and sufficient moisture some growers are even expected to switch over to rapeseed from wheat. Experts feel that Malaysian palm oil would be deliberately kept high to prevent India from importing. ``This could see domestic oil at disparity during November in comparison to imported oils but things could improve from March and prices could rule higher at least until March," an analyst said.

``Palm oil stocks could, for the first time, be lesser in March 2004 compared to September this year. It could even go below 9 lakh tonnes. That's why it will make sense for the global market to prevent India from importing palmolein and build stocks,'' he said.

Most of the experts feel that there could be a temporary downward tweak in edible oil prices in the near future before they stabilise and rule firm till February, when soyabean from countries such as Argentina and Brazil is expected to hit the market.

Currently, global prices for soyabean oil and palm oil are ruling higher on reports of the soyabean crop being affected in the US due to dry weather. Prices for edible oils in both global and domestic markets have increase sharply during the last two months. The trade also expects non-edible oil imports to decline to 2.5 lt from 3.3 lt last year.

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