The Hindu Business Line : Tempestuous winter session ahead

With election results coming in and such issues as the Judev tape episode and the stamp-paper scam on hand, the winter session of Parliament may see much polemics and politicking rather than democratic discussion and deliberations. The fate over 50 Bills, many of them crucial to taking forward the economic reforms, hangs in the balance. R. C. Rajamani on the session ahead.

With a host of controversial issues threatening to hit the nation's highest democratic forum, is it going to be a winter session of discontent?

<150>IF PAST sessions of Parliament have been "stormy", to use the well-worn cliché, the winter session beginning today, will be nothing short of tempestuous. For, the House assembles in the backdrop of keenly contested elections to five State Assemblies — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh, Delhi and Mizoram. The results, expected a couple of days into the session, may cast their long shadows over the four-week proceedings of Parliament.

If the Congress wins in a majority of the States, or even a couple of them, the party is bound to bring pressure on the Government to quit, claiming it has lost its moral authority to continue. The leader of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Bharatiya Janata Party, needs to win at least in one State to put on a brave face. Particularly, it needs to win in Delhi, seen to be a tall order in the light of several opinion polls suggesting that the Congress under the Chief Minister, Mrs Shiela Dikshit, will retain power. If the BJP loses Delhi, the Congress is bound to say that the result there can be taken as the national barometer. So, it would be very important for the BJP to return to power in the capital, but the dices are heavily loaded against such a victory.

Of course, by no means it is enjoined up on the incumbent government at the Centre to quit just because the dominant party of the NDA coalition loses a few Assembly elections. The only argument the Congress can use to justify its demand, if it were to make, for the exit of the Government is that the next Lok Sabha elections are due in just about nine months. In the realm of politics, nine months can be interpreted as being "too long'' or "too short'' depending on which side one is making it from.

The session has already been curtailed by two weeks. It should have begun in the third week of November but for the Assembly elections. Only 16 sittings are slated before Parliament adjourns sine die on December 23, as now scheduled. It has a heavy legislative agenda to transact. But how much of it Parliament will be able to finish is anybody's guess, going by experience.

A lot of time was wasted in the past sessions because of frequent adjournments over such divisive issues as Ayodhya, Bofors and women's reservation in Parliament and State assemblies. The ghosts of Babri Masjid and Bofors gun deal have haunted every session for the past decade and a half.

Besides, there is any number of fresh issues coming up every session. The PAC report on the Kargil war purchases was one such issue that marred the monsoon session. Earlier it was the Tehelka tape controversy that raised allegations of bribes in Defence deals. The Opposition is yet to end its boycott of the Defence Minister, Mr George Fernandes.

The Opposition confrontation on a variety of issues culminated in the no-confidence motion against the NDA Government in the monsoon session that witnessed acrimony on an unprecedented scale, at times leading to unseemly personal spat between rival members. So much of mutual resentment and recrimination was vented upon each other that one thought that it had all reached a kind of catharsis.

However, this welcome denouement looks hardly likely in this winter of discontent. A host of controversial issues are threatening to hit the nation's highest democratic forum, suggesting long hours of polemics and politicking rather than democratic discussion and deliberations. Among the issues providing grist to the Opposition mill are the Judev tape episode and the CAT paper leak. On the CAT (Combined Admission Test to Indian Institutes of Management) issue, the Opposition has already alleged that the Human Resource Development Ministry is trying to block some examination reforms suggested by the IIM, thereby undermining its authority as an autonomous body.

It could rake up the Babri masjid demolition case once again with the 11th anniversary of the unfortunate event on December 6 just a few days away from the start of the session.

The Treasury Benches, on their part, are likely to exploit the Rs 30,000-crore Stamp Paper racket originating in the Congress-ruled States of Karnataka and Maharashtra. They are also likely to turn the heat on the Opposition, using the Ajit Jogi forgery allegation case with the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, himself questioning Mr Jogi's continuation as the Chief Minister of Chhatisgarh.

Is there no issue, unifying the Government and the Opposition on the hallowed floors of Parliament? Yes, it is terrorism. All sides of the Houses are likely to rise as one man as the second anniversary of terrorist attack on Parliament House falls on December 13.

With curtailed sessions being the order of the day, pending legislative business is piling session after session. Out of a maximum possible sitting of 24 days in the monsoon session, the Lok Sabha sat for 21 days. Out of a minimum 144 hours of sitting, the House sat for 113 hours and 13 minutes. Time was lost mainly because of adjournments over divisive issues.

When the House met to begin the monsoon session, the Lok Sabha had as many as 34 Bills pending with it for discussion and passage. During the session, 15 new Bills were introduced in the House.

Out of the new Bills, two were Appropriation Bills relating to the General Budget and Railway Budget. These had to be passed to avoid a financial impasse. Including these two, only 11 Bills were passed in all during the session.

As per the records of the Lok Sabha Secretariat, the total number of pending official Bills at the end of the monsoon session was 42. A total of 54 Bills, both pending and new, are slated for discussion and passage in the winter session. Among them is the politically crucial POTA (Amendment) Bill, 2003. It will replace the relevant ordinance promulgated during the inter-session. Its main provision is the empowerment of the Review Committees to make their recommendations binding on the police and State governments.

Observers see prospects of release of political leaders like Vaiko once the legislation is passed. In fact, the Review Committees have already had some meetings since the issue of the POTA ordinance, leading to speculation on possible release of some leaders.

Some of the pending Bills having a bearing on the finance and economy of the nation are the Banking Regulation (Amendment) and Miscellaneous Bill, 2003, the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Amendment) Bill, 2003, the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (Amendment) Bill, 2003, the National Statistical Commission Bill, 2003, the Securities Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2003, the Taxation Law Amendment Bill, 2003, the Industrial Development Bank (Transfer of Undertaking and Repeal) Bill, 2002, the National Tax Tribunal Bill, 2003 and the Indian Telegraph (Amendment) Bill, 2003.

Most of the Bills are crucial to carry forward the ongoing economic reforms. Any further delay will only hamper the process of liberalisation.

(The author, a former Deputy Editor with PTI, is a New Delhi-based freelance writer.)

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