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G.K. Nair

The large greying population will give rise to societal shifts in terms of health needs, work participation rate, dependency rate, service pension requirements and social security system.

Kochi , Dec. 5

THE increase in life expectancy in Kerala in recent years has resulted in raising the number of aged people in the State and at the current rate their population would touch 13.6 per cent of the State's total population by 2011.

Drop in population growth coupled with improved standard of living and better social welfare infrastructures has brought down the number of people under 20 years of age to 29.51 per cent in 2001 from 48.97 per cent in 1961. However, the number of old in the age group of 60 to 74 has gone up to 8.09 per cent in 2001 from 4.69 per cent in 1961.

Those above 75 years went up to 10.83 per cent from 5.83 per cent. Significantly, the number of people in the working age group - 20 to 64 years - increased to 59.65 per cent in 2001 from 45.19 per cent in 1961, according to a study conducted by the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.

The large greying population will give rise to societal shifts in terms of health needs, work participation rate, dependency rate, service pension requirements and social security system, says Dr K.K. George, head of the Centre for Socio-Economic and Environmental Studies (CESS), here.

He said that Kerala's success in extending life expectancy has been burdening the Government with a high volume of service pension payments. The problem is likely to be aggravated in future, as death rates are likely to fall further among senior citizens in the State. Already, these pensions account for 16.2 per cent of the State's revenue expenditure as against the average of 8.7 per cent for all the States.

Besides, the changing population profile is straining the State's social security system. The majority of the social security schemes are targeted at senior citizens. The burden of these schemes is likely to increase in view of the demographic changes taking place, he said. The State is already unable to revise the rates of welfare payments in time to compensate for the increase in cost of living. Besides, these payments to the elderly are effected only after considerable time lags, he pointed out.

According to Dr George, the changing demographic profile is also likely to increase the demand for expenditure on health services. The increasing population of the aged in the State's population is changing the disease profile also in the State, he said.

New category of diseases comprising degenerative and neo-plastic diseases like hypertension, cardio-vascular diseases and cancer has begun to emerge. The proportion of these diseases, which is already quite high, is likely to increase further, he said.

As a result, high investments would be needed in diagnostic equipment, hospital- isation, treatment, recovery and rehabilitation.

At a time when the expenditure requirements on health are rising, the State is finding it increasingly difficult to meet these requirements. In fact, the quality of services in the Government health services has declined for want of enough funds.

Consequently, there has been an increase in the demand for private medical care services offered very often on commercial terms. "This, in turn, has boosted the average private expenditure on medical care. The State seems to be losing its gains on the health front," Dr George said.

Given this situation, he said that the Government should present this problem before the Twelfth Finance Commission, which is due in the State this month.

The commission, he argued, should consider aging of population of the State as a special problem and provide up-gradation grants to meet the manifold expenditure needs of the Government.

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