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IT IS EASY to be cynical of the fuss made about Acquired-Immune Deficiency Syndrome, especially around the World AIDS day on December 1. The sight of many celebrity campaigners for HIV/AIDS may lead people to trivialise the issue. However, scepticism on this count would be foolhardy. This is not an instance of scare mongering by people with vested interests, but an attempt to draw attention to a problem that threatens to impose a huge economic cost on a few developing countries that are already hard-pressed.

A recent study by McKinsey consultants warned multinational corporations about being "dangerously myopic" to the impact of the spread of HIV/AIDS. The warning comes on the heels of new studies that show that the economic impact may have been understated. Early studies on macroeconomic costs of AIDS relied on incomplete parameters to assess the impact of the disease on GDP growth. Multilateral agencies have used data from Africa to show that the GDP growth rate could decline by 0.3-1.5 per cent annually following the rapid spread of HIV virus. Recent studies suggest the problem could be bigger. HIV often strikes people in the prime of their productive life. The debilitating attendant ailments and the exorbitant treatment costs in developing countries are well documented. An alarming side-effect, often ignored previously, is the fate of children in affected families. Such children are inevitably deprived of the education they could have otherwise had. Over time, the spread of HIV is bound to have a disastrous impact on a country's human capital.

Data collected by a Chennai-based non-governmental organisation, YRG Care, provide an insight into the nature of the problem in India. The average age of male patients coming to YRG Care on a typical day is 35. About a third of them earn a monthly income of Rs 1,700-3,500. Juxtapose the data with the fact that India may have as many as 4.52 million people who are HIV positive, second only to South Africa in numbers. Add to that the fear among some people working in the sector that primitive infrastructure may have led to an underestimation of the infected people in such populous States as UP and Bihar. The portents are worrisome. As researchers in India point out, the obvious impact on the economy when a significant number of people in their prime are infected is on the expenditure pattern. Going beyond that are problems related to loss of skilled workers and re-training costs that may take longer to show up.

Indian corporates have an important role to play in combating HIV. For a start it is important to see the spread of the HIV virus for what it is: A potential economic disaster. A sustained awareness campaign among the workforce would be the best place to start. Prevention is perhaps the most effective way to control costs. On the Government's part, it is essential to tap the pharmaceutical industry to combat the problem. The Indian pharmaceutical industry has had a huge impact on the pricing of anti-HIV drugs in developing countries. The immediate priority is that the drop in drug prices over the years needs to be complemented by the Government doing better on healthcare delivery. A joint effort is the only effective remedy.

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