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Rasheeda Bhagat

WITH the Americans getting the ultimate prize in Iraq in the former Iraqi President, Mr Saddam Hussein's capture, a period of uncertainty in the country's politics has come to an end.

Even after his regime had fallen, the shadow of Mr Saddam — and the nagging fear that he might return to power some day — had an overpowering presence in Iraq. "Genie", "devil", "mercury which cannot be caught" were some of the words Iraqis used to described the ousted dictator to this correspondent during a recent visit to the country. His arrest in Tikrit on Sunday, however, has finally proved that Mr Saddam is human after all and could, indeed, be captured.

The first and anticipated reaction of the Iraqi people has been celebration. His capture is bound to bring back memories of the worst years of his regime: gassings, murders, torture and the disappearance of thousands of Iraqis.

The spontaneous cheers, mostly from the Iraqi journalists, at a press conference in Baghdad where the Civil Administrator, Mr Paul Bremer, announced dramatically, "We got him", and the jeers in Arabic when pictures of the arrested Mr Saddam were shown at the conference, were indicative of the pent-up fury of most Iraqis. Mr Saddam himself looked tired, crestfallen and "resigned to his fate," as was stated by Gen. Ricardo Sanchez.

His capture, however, raises a few crucial questions on Iraq's future.

Though the average Iraqi might rejoice at this news, it is doubtful if there will be any immediate or dramatic let-up in the guerrilla-type attacks and suicide bombings which have been plaguing the Coalition forces in Iraq. These might reduce in intensity and frequency, but are unlikely to end altogether. This is because at present, Iraq has become a sort of hunting ground for jihadis of various hues, including those from al-Qaeda, who are said to have reduced their presence in Afghanistan and headed towards Iraq.

Mr Saddam's capture will do quite a bit to lift the sagging popularity of the American President, Mr George W. Bush, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair. But even if it improves Mr Bush's chances for another stint at America's helm, it will hardly be a shot in the arm for the US design to make it a long-haul occupation in Iraq.

On the contrary, once the Iraqis digest the impact of Mr Saddam's capture and thank the Americans and the British for removing their dreaded leader's fearful shadow from their lives, they will only intensify the demand that the occupiers leave Iraq to the Iraqis.

In the coming days, there is bound to be increasing demands that the occupiers hold elections even earlier than the six-month deadline they had imposed and usher in an elected Iraqi government which is not seen as a stooge of the Coalition, as the present Iraqi Governing council is looked upon.

But Iraq's return to self-governance is bound to have plenty of hiccups and roadblocks. The present occupation is only one factor. The country's return to democracy hinges on several factors — both political and religious.

Mr Saddam hailed from the minority community of Sunnis, and it is evident that the next Iraqi government will have a Shiite majority, considering that Shias form 60 per cent of the population as against 30 per cent of Sunnis. At the moment, a bloody and violent strife is on between myriad Shiite groups, particularly in the holy cities of Karbala and Najaf, to wrest political power. It was the quest for ultimate political power in Iraq that resulted in the gunning down of the Shiite leader, Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir, outside the Imam Ali mosque in Najaf in August.

Many educated Iraqis fear that even if the Coalition was to depart in the near future, it would only leave behind a mess. Gun battles between the Shiite groups outside some of the holiest shrines in Islam, in a place such as Karbala, hardly bolster the Iraqis' confidence that the Iraq of their dreams, sans both Saddam Hussein and the Americans, is a near-term possibility.

Removing the Saddam regime first and capturing its kingpin next was the easy part. Today, Mr Bremer and Co might be cheered, but tomorrow they are more likely to be cursed for creating, and worse leaving behind a mess in Iraq, which might, unfortunately, see anarchy in the coming days.

Response can be sent to

rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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