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D. Murali

THIS IS about a country in the `axis of evil' in the books of Mr George Bush, that is: North Korea. About a year ago, CNN had this to say about the US President's foreign policy: "As 2002 makes way for a new year, actions inside the nations he termed an `axis of evil' — Iraq, North Korea and Iran — have increasingly influenced his administration's foreign policy."

Now, having captured Saddam Hussein, attention would shift to the other trouble spots. Unlike as in the case of Iraq, the US policy towards North Korea, even following the revelation of a clandestine North Korea nuclear weapons programme in October 2002, has been marked by diplomatic efforts, notes www.nationmaster.com.

Now, this is a country that has as its motto: "One is sure to win if he believes in and depends upon the people". A big if, actually, because the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is among the world's most centrally planned and isolated economies.

"This country with aspirations to become a nuclear power, has all but collapsed economically," states the blurb of Michael Breen's new book on this unknown country: Kim Jong-il: North Korea's Dear Leader, from Wiley (www.wiley.com). The subtitle would be more interesting to the US: "Who he is, what he wants, what to do about him."

Everybody agrees that North Korea plus nukes is "a disastrous formula," but the problem is that none knows "what's going on inside," for it is an "intelligence black hole", though it is within "a three-hour flight from 40 cities with population of over one million."

Its people are so impoverished and malnourished that they are several inches shorter and many pounds lighter than people of the same age living in South Korea, continues Breen. "Kim Jong-il is the one fat man in the whole country."

And if that is shocking there is more. There are only 270 surnames to go around the 75 million or so Koreans in the world, informs the preface. "One quarter today are named Kim, and another quarter Lee, Park, Choi or Chung."

Avid students of economics would want data about the country, but be warned that it is hard to know how bad or good the economy is because they stopped publishing `meaningful statistics' almost five decades ago. What you can expect is "Thanks to the Great Leader, mining has increased by 10 per cent this year"-type of annual report. "Ten per cent, over what, who knows?" wonders Breen.

The book cites a 2001 study on what the country would require as minimum outside investment: "$1 billion a year for five years to stop the economic shrivelling and escape the poverty trap." Reconstruction would need more, but the million-dollar question is who would give the money.

"Most banks shudder at the mere mention of North Korea, which is notorious for refusing to pay debts." For instance, in the early 1970s, "the leadership ordered a few hundred Volvos for its top officials and never paid up."

Since the country's CEO enjoys a cushy life, even as most of the citizens go about in rags, it would be logical to ask where he gets the money from. This is what the book has as the answer: "Kim Jong-il has his own conglomerate. His evil enterprise goes by the name of Division 39. Its operations are quite secretive. It is reckoned to have generated as much as $5 billion, which is kept safe in banks and operations in Switzerland, Macao and elsewhere."

It is surmised that one wing of the division engages in banking and such other legitimate businesses, while the other is involved in arms dealing, drugs smuggling and counterfeiting of US dollars.

One only wishes that diplomacy worked in North Korea's case, and the world is saved of a confrontation of the type that was witnessed in Iraq.

Economics@thehindu.co.in

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