The Hindu Business Line : Pakistan: Chickens coming home to roost

The recent assassination attempts on Gen Musharraf can best be described as the wages of sin that Pakistan's rulers have inevitably to pay for the policies they have followed for over a decade. The ISI's inducting and training of terrorists and the political backing to terror outfits, which were encouraged to foment religious extremism not only in Kashmir but also in Afghanistan and Chechnya, have boomeranged on the present leadership, says G. Parthasarathy.

THE chickens are coming home to roost for Pakistan's military ruler. Just after he seized power in October 1999, Gen Pervez Musharraf became the first ruler in Pakistan to justify the violence unleashed by his jehadis in Kashmir as being a noble jehad worthy of support by all pious Muslims.

There is now increasing evidence to establish that the Pakistanis, led by the brother of Maulana Masood Azhar, who hijacked IC-814, were in regular contact with the ISI before and during the hijacking.

The ISI then facilitated the stay in Pakistan of the three released terrorists — British national Omar Syed Sheikh, Maulana Masood Azhar and the Kashmiri terrorist Mushtaq Zargar.

Omar Sheikh today awaits the execution of a death penalty for his involvement in the murder of American journalist Daniel Pearl. Sheikh is known to have been in close touch in Lahore with one of Gen Musharraf's favourite officials from the ISI, Brig Ejaz Shah.

The Jaish-e-Mohammed, founded by Maulana Azhar, has been declared as an international terrorist organisation. It masterminded the attack on India's Parliament. Its cadres are now said to be targeting Gen Musharraf because of his support for the US President, Mr George Bush's war against the Taliban. And one of those who attempted to assassinate Gen Musharraf on Christmas day, evidently had links with Mushtaq Zargar. As the Biblical adage avers, "As you sow, so shall you reap"!!

The recent assassination attempts on Gen Musharraf can best be described as the wages of sin that Pakistan's rulers have inevitably to pay for the policies they have followed for over a decade.

When it became clear by the mid-1990s that people in Kashmir were tired of violence, the ISI inducted trained terrorists, espousing Wahhabi-oriented religious extremism into the valley by supporting groups like the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and the Lashkar-e-Taiba.

These groups were encouraged to strike a close relationship with the Taliban and even join the jehad being waged by others in Central Asia and Chechnya.

When Osama bin Laden formed the "International Islamic Front for Jihad against Jews and Crusaders" in February 1998, the ISI encouraged five Pakistani groups involved in sectarian violence within Pakistan and jehad in J&K to join this Front.

But when Gen Musharraf was confronted with the choice of either facing bankruptcy and international isolation, on the one hand, or turning against the Taliban and its supporters, on the other, following the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, the die was cast.

He tried to please the Americans by supporting their onslaught on the Taliban in Afghanistan, while at the same time providing sanctuary and support to the Taliban and its supporters on Pakistani soil. In the process, he has earned the wrath of the Taliban, the jehadis and their supporters within Pakistan's military/security establishment, who would like to eliminate him on the one hand and the distrust of the Americans, on the other.

The assassination attempts on December 14 and Christmas day took place in what is the most heavily militarised area in Pakistan. The General Headquarters (GHQ), the Headquarters of the 10 Corps and the 111 Brigade of the Pakistan Army are all located in Rawalpindi.

The jehadi organisations have offices nearby. The Indian High Commissioner and his staff are not even permitted to play golf in this area. It is inconceivable that the two assassination attempts in this area, involving prior knowledge of the timings and route of Gen Musharraf's cavalcade and the planting of high explosives could have taken place without backing of influential and well-informed people within the Pakistan army.

Interestingly, the Americans seem to be prepared for a post-Musharraf dispensation in Pakistan's army. Pro-Islamist and pro-Taliban Generals like Lt Gen Muzaffar Usmani and Lt Gen Mehmood Ahmed were sidelined, superseded and compelled to resign.

The present Vice-Chief of Army Staff, Gen Mohammad Yusuf Khan, is known to be American friendly. Further, recent transfers and promotions of senior Lieutenant Generals indicate that the top army leadership is unlikely to swerve from the path set by Gen Musharraf of responding to American concerns.

Gen Musharraf has also now struck a deal with the radical Islamic Parties. The "Military, Mullah, Madrassa Alliance" will, therefore, continue to have an important say in the Musharraf dispensation, notwithstanding promises he makes to the Americans. It remains to be seen how this can be squared either with the security threat Gen Musharraf now faces, or with American interests in Pakistan.

Mr Vajpayee will be arriving in Islamabad in the midst of this uncertain and tense security scenario. There has been some reduction in infiltration across the LOC in response to international pressure. But the litmus test of the Pakistan Army's intentions will lie in whether they end the use of infiltration and terrorism as instruments of state policy when the winter snows melt in May/June 2004.

We will also only then know how serious Pakistan is in respecting the ceasefire along the LOC and North of the Siachen Glacier. We are in the midst of discussions to promote confidence and cooperation with Pakistan in a number of areas. It will take a number of months for us to give shape to and implement these measures.

It is imperative that we should move ahead purposefully in building on the trust and confidence that recent measures have produced.

There is no harm in meetings with the Pakistan leadership if there is a formal request from Pakistan during the Islamabad Summit, as long as there is no repetition of the Agra fiasco and the discussions are confined to what is realistic. Issues like dialogue on Kashmir, or a formal dialogue process should be considered only after the winter snows melt.

The SAARC Summit also provides an opportunity for New Delhi to assess in what direction the Bangladesh Prime Minister, Begum Khaleda Zia, wishes to take her country.

With Bhutan having cracked down on insurgents from our north-eastern states and Myanmar having a track record of being helpful to India on this score, Begum Zia will have to consider whether any useful purpose is served by providing groups like the ULFA support and sustenance on Bangladesh soil.

It is true that there are elements in her ruling coalition like the Jamat Islami Party that are pathologically anti-Indian.

But given the present climate against international terrorism, she will have to carefully ponder over the long-term consequences of her present policies and postures.

While Bangladesh does have legitimate economic concerns as a "least developed country" that New Delhi should try to accommodate, Dhaka will also have to decide whether it would like to remain aloof from, or act as a spoiler in efforts to promote economic integration in South and South-East Asia.

With free trade arrangements already in place with Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Nepal in South Asia and Thailand in South East Asia, India is positioned to move ahead in promoting its larger regional economic interests, even if Dhaka chooses to be obstructionist. India-baiting may be a useful policy domestically. But it is doubtful whether its present posture will serve Dhaka's larger interests.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)