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Our Bureau

Kolkata , Jan. 5

EVEN an annual economic growth of 8 per cent up to 2026 will not be enough for India to avoid a rise in unemployment, according to a study conducted under the aegis of the London School of Economics (LSE).

The outcome of the study, entitled India Project, is the outcome of a two-year-long research carried out by a team of LSE experts led by Professor Tim Dyson. It was presented at a workshop on `India in the 21st century: Population, economy, human development and environment' organised by the Centre for Development and Environment Policy, Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta.

The report said that current policy stances towards agriculture were unsustainable and some southern and western States were growing faster than others. The paper also called for better implementation of existing policies.

The study estimated that India's population will touch 1.4 billion by 2026 and could well approach 1.6 billion by 2051. The only way the country could miss the 1.5 billion mark is by an "unexpectedly severe HIV/AIDS epidemic or a full-scale nuclear war," say the authors.

Around half the population rise will be accounted for by Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh with a projected rise of 50 per cent between 2001 and 2026. The future fertility declines in these four States will be crucial in determining the extent of decline in India's population beyond 2026, feel the researchers.

Acknowledging that population growth had made the task of educating India's children more difficult, the study says that some States had already experienced declines in their school-age numbers.

Prof Dyson and his team saw some worrying signs as to whether the speed of India's economic growth can be maintained. They felt that "difficulties in the export sector, partly related to the backlog of reforms and lack of capital and infrastructural investment, are likely to impede future growth." They noted in this context that progress had been mixed at the State level, with the southern and the western States growing at a faster pace than the others, especially those in the Gangetic plains.

Noting that population growth and increases in food production were intimately linked, the team stated that the current policy towards agriculture was unsustainable and they would have to change despite political difficulties. The study painted a modest outlook for India's food situation saying that there would probably be fewer hungry people in 2026 than in 2021, but there would still be millions suffering from nutritional problems.

On environmental issues, the LSE team said there was no need for India to emerge as a polluting giant with large industries steadily going for cleaner technologies. However, the small-scale sector was still polluting and issues like solid waste was a major concern in urban pollution control. "Urban water and sewage, linked to population growth present further challenges," they said.

Noting that perhaps the strongest of all population impacts is on the demand for water, the paper said that at present there was little incentive for a farmer or a resident to conserve water. "Water policy is complex involving law institutions, society and politics. But business as usual is not an option for India and, however difficult, things will have to change," the experts feel.

Even as they pointed out that India does not lag behind in policies or analysis but in implementation, the study brought to the fore some policy issues, which the team felt were of far-reaching importance. These were the urgent need for higher quality services in reproductive health and family planning, reducing `excessive' subsidies in electricity and water and better use of the powers vested with the public bodies, which control atmospheric and chemical pollution.

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