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Thursday, Jan 08, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

BEARS extended their pressure during the initial hours of Wednesday's trading. However, bulls managed to recoup most of their losses during the fag end of the day's trading.

The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral. Bull domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. On the contrary, it is likely to turn bearish.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: During the initial hours of Wednesday's trading, the January contract fell drastically by 34 points. Later on, bulls made a smart recovery and wiped out their losses.

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The January contract moved within a wide band of 49 points. It closed with a gain of 9 points with respect to Tuesday's close.

The day's move had no impact on the recommended levels.

Entry levels for the January contract are still placed quite away. In the normal course of trading on Thursday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. The exit level for the short position in Ranbaxy is placed at 1098.05.

For Thursday, the downtrend in Hind Petro, Satyam Computer and Tata Motors is likely to be under threat. The prevailing uptrend counters in the list are likely to be safe. Bears are unlikely to have any opportunity for Thursday's trading.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Reliance and Tata Steel. Between the two, the best bet is likely to be Tata Steel. This counter is in the sideways mode. Its bullish trigger level is placed very close to its current level. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger this level.

Cash Segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list in this segment remains intact. The ranking of the list too remains undisturbed. The downtrend in Ranbaxy is likely to be terminated at 1087.05.

Bull domination on Thursday could be a threat to the prevailing downtrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the uptrend in BPCL and Infosys is likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are unlikely to exist for Thursday's trading. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Reliance and Tata Steel. The best bet for Thursday's trading is likely to be Tata Steel. This counter is in the downtrend. Its exit and buy trigger levels are placed closer to its last traded price. Bull move on Thursday has the potential to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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