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Tuesday, Jan 13, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

BEARS extended their dominance over Monday's trading activity. Bulls were unable to make any impact during the day's trading.

Monday's market action resulted in terminating most of the uptrend counters in the list. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

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Nifty futures recommendation: During the open, the near-month January contract moved by 6 points. Bulls failed to capitalise on it as they yielded to bear pressure.

The January contract moved within a band of 43 points. It closed with a loss of 33 points with respect to Friday's close.

Bear domination during the day led to the termination of the uptrend in the January contract. The long trade exited at break-even level. Bearish trigger level for the January contract is now placed closer to its last traded value. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to initiate the downtrend in the January contract.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition, as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list in this segment, remains unchanged. For those holding long position in Hind Petro may do so with the stop loss placed at 468.95.

Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in State Bank and Tata Motors. On the other hand, the downtrend in Reliance and Tata Steel are likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are unlikely to exist for Tuesday's trading. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT, ONGC, Satyam and Tata Motors. The best is likely to be ONGC for Tuesday's trading. Its sell level is placed very near to its current level. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to trigger this level.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change. The ranking of the list had a minor change. Satyam Computer moved to the top slot followed by Reliance.

For Tuesday, the uptrend in State Bank and the downtrend in Reliance are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in as much as six counters. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Tata Steel.

The best among the above is likely to be selling in SAIL. This counter is in sideways mode. Bear move on Tuesday is likely to initiate the downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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