The Hindu Business Line : Poll politics 2004

With the country getting into election mode, political parties are readying to do their best, or worst, to grab control of a liberalising India that wants to be a superpower.

THE coming year promises to be one long festival of polls, to the Lok Sabha, various State Assemblies and, if they happen, elections to the Panchayat Raj institutions. The Election Commission (EC) had put the Lok Sabha elections on its planner some time in September when the term of the present, 13th, Lok Sabha expires.

September is generally a good month to hold elections. The monsoons are nearly over; the major agricultural operations have been completed; women do not have to trudge long distances for firewood and drinking water;, the festival season is approaching, the examinations are still a while away; and the weather is generally pleasant all over the country.

The historical accident of two successive short-lived Lok Sabhas brought general elections around the time of polls to the State Assemblies; Panchayat Raj elections happened round the year.

The scattered schedule of the various elections facilitated security arrangements, as the deployment of forces could also be staggered. It also suited, in a way the leadership of various political parties as they could participate in the electoral campaigns in the States to build up their following and to consolidate it for the national hustings.

But saner citizens werehoping all elections would be held simultaneously so as to effect substantial savings in expenditure and minimise the periods around every polls when governments become inoperative.

Once the polls are announced, the governments are discouraged from making any new policy initiatives or announcing projects that could be seen as an attempt to bring undue influence on the electorate. But governments have fine-tuned ways around this Election Commission diktat. They all become suddenly conscious of the good work they ought to have been doing all along. Like a pupil in the examination hall, after the ten-minute warning bell, they get into a tizzy of activity or, at least, pronouncements.

The ability to guess the date of the polls is a prized faculty. Those in the ruling party have a big advantage in setting dates to suit them. Just about a month back when the vote of no-confidence was brewing in the Lok Sabha, the Leader of the Opposition, who is also the president of the party that held power in 14 States, for all purposes looked set to be the next occupant of the Prime Minister's gaddi.

Then came the mini-general elections — the Assembly polls in five States, importantly four in the Hindi belt — and that changed the whole situation overnight.

Even before the polling , one heard whispers from the BJP circles that Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee would go for early polls if the party won two of the four Hindi belt States. But the BJP bagged three, and the party was euphoric even as Congressmen sank into unwarranted despair. It was a foregone conclusion that the Lok Sabha polls would be advanced.

Though the actual proroguing was still some time away, the parties got into election mode. Any ruling party would have rushed with announcements of bonanzas to woo the voter. The BJP did so too. Then came the moves to secure allies. The Congress President, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, got busy on her telephone, calling on neighbours. The NCP chief, Mr Sharad Pawar, toyed with the possibility of aligning with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. For the BJP, this had the blessings of the Shiv Sena strongman, Mr Bal Thackeray, himself. To sweeten the bait, the Centre announced a loan package of Rs 1,600 crore for the ailing cooperative sugar factories of Maharashtra. But the Baron of Baramati was not satisfied, and he quickly turned around and started opening channels to 10 Janpath. Clearly, this time there would be no bars to political gimmickry or chicanery.

Meanwhile, the BJP national executive endorsed the advancement of elections. What were the major considerations? Thebig win for the party in the mini-general elections and the despondency in the Opposition? Could not be. There have been umpteen instances in recent years when two successive polls have produced diametrically opposite results.

Could it be that the triumph of three women Chief Ministers made the male politicians on both sides have a second look at the Women's Reservation Bill, which was to come before the last session?

The ruling NDA was foresworn to seeing it through and the Congress was rearing to go for it. The threat that the trend would continue and produce a woman Prime Minister — predicted by some influential astrologers too — was frightening. The BJP started to build up a campaign of hypnotising the nation into a stupor of `feel-good' and `Bharat as the latest super-power'. On cue, the Finance Minister, Mr Jaswant Singh, produced on January 9 a series of measures benefiting the young and the privileged, the well-to-do senior citizens and India Inc. Students would get cheaper loans; the moneyed elderly higher rates of interest on their savings. There were sops for rural housing and agricultural loans (already announced earlier).

But in a Government where the right hand does not know what the left hand is doing, the Ministry of Commerce struck a strident note by announcing a ban on the export of onions, the politically sensitive vegetable. The onion producers of Nashik and Pune districts of Maharashtra protested strongly. Once bitten by the onion producers, who stymied BJP elections in five States, the Prime Minister came forth to announce a new TV channel and phone facilities for the farmers.

Whenever a state is vested with economic powers, corruption is inevitable; so is the rigging of elections. This has happened in socialist India all along. In a liberalising India preparing to be a superpower, political bigwigs are readying to bid for control for the next five years.

(The author is Founder, Shetkari Sanghatana, and can be contacted at sharad@mah.nic.in)

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