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Wednesday, Jan 21, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

BULLS exerted pressure during the initial hour of Tuesday's trading activity. Later on, bears took over and gained control of the day's proceedings.

The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. Otherwise, the prevailing sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

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Nifty Futures Recommendation: During the open, the January month contract gained six points. Thereafter, bears made a strong comeback and recouped their early losses. The January contract moved over a wide band of 88 points. It closed with a substantial loss of 80 points with a strong bearish note.

Initial move triggered the uptrend in the January contract. However, during the fag end of the day's trading this was terminated. The trade resulted with a significant loss of 70 points. Bearish trigger level for the January contract is now placed very close to its last traded value. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate the downtrend in the January contract.

Stock Futures Recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had few changes. Tata Steel moved to the second position and Tata Power to the eighth position.

Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in ONGC and Tata Steel. Bulls are unlikely to have any opportunity for Wednesday's trading. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. The best is likely to be Tata Motors. Its sell level is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to trigger this level.

Cash Segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list in this segment underwent a change. L&T gained entry with the exit of BPCL. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes.

Most of the counters in the list are in the sideways mode. For Wednesday, the uptrend in Reliance and SAIL is likely to be under threat. The prevailing downtrend counters in the list are likely to be safe. Bear pressure prevailing in the market has placed the bullish trigger level for the tradable counters at a far away level. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in as much as five counters. The best bet is likely to be State Bank. Its bearish trigger level is placed quite closer to its current level. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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