The Hindu Business Line : Importance of the FIIs

THE sharp decline in asset prices last week was primarily attributed to selling by Foreign Institutional Investors. The trading statistics, however, show that the FIIs bought stocks when the market declined. On January 21, for instance, the NSE and the BSE declined 42 and 142 points respectively. On that day, the FIIs made net investment worth Rs 344 crore.

So, why is a rise or decline in the market always attributed to the FIIs? How relevant are FIIs to the current market rally? A simple model using FII investments, change in their investments and market returns shows that FIIs do not drive asset returns. The relationship is also not significant if asset returns are used with a time lag.

Yet, we intuitively know that the FIIs are important for the market. They typically start a market rally. Subsequently flows come from all classes of investors. At this stage, the market behaves like a self-organised system. No single class of investors drives the market — asset prices go up, driven by the collective momentum of all investors. Finally, the market enters the state of self-organised criticality. This is when any negative information could have non-linear effect on the market. The FIIs play a major role during this phase too.

Market data: Statistics suggest that day trading playsed an important role in driving up asset prices during the current market rally. The market capitalisation on the NSE in December 2003, for instance, was Rs 11,67,029 crore against Rs 6,12,030 crore in May 2003, an increase of 90 per cent. Yet, the delivery ratio increased just 10 per cent during this period. We know that institutional investors hold their positions for a longer period. The low delivery ratio juxtaposed with high market turnover suggests that non-institutional investors have been playing an important role in driving asset returns.

Another data set is the broker concentration ratio. Top 100 brokers constitute 60 per cent of the total turnover on the NSE. Importantly, this ratio has not changed during the current rally. A 90 per cent increase in market capitalisation suggests that the remaining 40 per cent of the brokers are also generating higher volumes. And these brokers primarily cater to non-institutional clients.

Finally, consider the rally in mid-cap stocks. The CNX Nifty Mid-cap Index has run up 85 per cent in the current rally against 65 per cent gain in S&P CNX Nifty. True, the FIIs and mutual funds have also taken exposure in mid-cap stocks. But the statistics on delivery ratio suggest that non-institutional investors may have contributed more to the rise in mid-caps than the FIIs and mutual funds. If non-institutional investors drive asset prices, would it matter if the FIIs pull out money from the market?

Self-organised system: Initially, FIIs drive asset prices. Next, more money enters the system, further driving up asset prices. Then, prices move away from equilibrium or the intrinsic value. This is when the market is said to be in a state of self-organised criticality. In such a state, even a small perturbation can have non-linear effect. That is, a small negative factor would have a magnified effect on asset prices.

Last week, this perturbation came in the form of rumours of FII selling and SEBI's action on participatory notes. These rumours sent the NSE Index down 150 points in just three days. To many, this may seem as an overreaction. But that is what happens when a system is a state of self-organised criticality, as the market was last week.

This brings us to the point about the FIIs and the market. The FIIs do matter because their entry starts off a market rally. Further, their exit or rumours of their exit at best temporarily halts the rally. At worst, their exit could halt the rally completely. But the FII factor is not very important when the market functions as a self-organised system. And that phase has a longer duration than the entry and exit phase of the rally. That is why statistical models suggest that FII flows do not drive market returns even though they do.

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