The Hindu Business Line : Global rice price outlook positive

THE outlook for world rice market in the coming months is positive as tight availability should keep prices firm, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) which has forecast world rice trade in 2004 to reach 26.1 million tonnes, some 2 mt lower than in the previous two years.

The anticipated drop in global trade reflects an anticipated tightening of supplies in major exporting countries, especially China and India, coupled with a 20 mt decline in global rice stocks at the end of 2003. The price rise would, however, be tempered by the withdrawal of Indonesia from the market until mid-June.

China is likely to curb exports to 2.0 mt down from 2.6 mt, especially if producers fail to respond to the Government incitation to produce more, FAO said in its latest Rice Market Monitor adding that India's temporary export ban and the introduction of new trade policy were anticipated to cut deliveries.

Shipments from India are expected to fall by one mt to about 3.2 mtfollowing tightening public stocks and an upward revision in selling prices of Food Corporation of India.

Amongst major importers, Indonesia is poised to reduce imports from 3 mtto 2 mt because of anticipated recovery in domestic production and the Government decree banning private sector imports during the first half of the year that coincides with the harvest time.