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Thursday, Feb 05, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls charged up

K. Premkumar

BEARS were successful in maintaining their pressure during the morning session of the Wednesday's trading. Bulls forced themselves in the latter part of the day to wind up with a strong bullish note. Wednesday's market action had little effect on the tradable counters. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bearish. Bull domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: February month contract saw a tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears till the noon of Wednesday's trading. Bulls found its way to pierce through the bear pressure in the latter part of the day's trading. February contract registered an intra-day low of 1764.25 and a high of 1831. The contract ended up with a gain of 49 points.

Bulls were successful in terminating the downtrend in the February contract. The short trade exited with a decent profit of around 20 points. Bullish trigger level is now placed closer to its last traded value. This level is very likely to be triggered on Thursday.

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Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the tradable list. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, State Bank and Reliance.

For Thursday, the prevailing downtrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat. The lone uptrend counter Tata Motors is likely to be safe. Selling opportunities are unlikely to exist for Thursday's trading. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in as much as seven orders.

The best bet is likely is to be buying in Reliance. The counter is in the downtrend. Its exit and bullish trigger levels are placed very close to its current level. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger these levels.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remain intact. Bull domination on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the downtrend counters in the tradable list. The prevailing uptrend counters in list are likely to be safe.

Bears are unlikely to have any opportunity for Thursday's trading. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in ONGC, Reliance, State Bank and Tata Steel.

The best among the above for Thursday's trading is Tata Steel. Its buy level is placed closer to its last traded price. Bull move on Thursday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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