The Hindu Business Line : Soyameal slips on avian flu

OILMEAL, especially that of soyameal, have begun to decline on fall in demand due to the outbreak of avian influenza. However, the oilmeal or de-oiled cake sector sees little effect of the outbreak, which has currently affected a host of East and South-East Asian countries, besides Pakistan, on exports.

"So far, there has been no effect of the outbreak on oilmeal exports, especially soyameal. It is not a problem of gigantic nature as per the feedback we have got from major players in South-East Asia," Mr Rajesh Agrawal, Chairman, Soyabean Processors Association of India, told Business Line.

"People are cautious but there will be replacement for the birds that are being killed in the next 40-45 days. The demand, if at all it has declined, will resurface quickly," he said.

Though there are reports from South-East Asia that suppliers of feedmeal were being asked to hold back shipments, Mr Agrawal said no such demand had been made to Indian exporters till now.

Soyameal exports make up nearly two-thirds of total oilmeal exports from the country. Last fiscal, soyameal exports comprised 13.3 lakh tonnes of the total oilmeal shipments of 18.96 lakh tonnes. This fiscal, while oilmeal exports are projected to be around 33-35 lt, soyameal shipments are expected to be around 25 lt.

Soyameal exports are looking up this fiscal on fall in soyabean crop in the US and revival of demand for compound feed. Oilmeal, especially soyameal, makes up 20-25 per cent of compound feed.

"We are getting demand for shipments of small lots of 15,000 tonnes to South-East Asia," he said.

Two weeks ago, the Philippines bought 15,000 tonnes at $310 c&f (Rs 14,100) a tonne, a deal for March delivery was struck last week with South Korea, which has bought 16,000 tonnes for $313.90 c&f (Rs 14,250) a tonne.

"If there is any fall in demand, it could be some 50,000 tonnes only. This is a very small quantity in global trade," Mr Agrawal said. "Even if demand from one place declines, it is bound to emerge from some other place."

Around five million birds have reportedly been slaughtered in Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan.

"But importers are buying on a hand-to-mouth existence. And there is no panic buying because of rising prices," he said. "However, we are enjoying a good $40 (Rs 1,850) a tonne freight advantage over the US and other South American destinations."

Till December last, 10.5 lt had been exported, while another three lakh tonnes are expected to be shipped before the month-end. "We have signed contracts for export of about 20 lt," Mr Agrawal said.

Soyabean prices too have declined to Rs 16,000-16,100 a tonne from from Rs 16,800-17,100 a tonne last week.

During the current kharif season, soyabean production has been pegged at 70 lt.

Asked about problems in despatching soyameal to the ports, Mr Agrawal said: "The wagon issue has been sorted out. Even road freight has turned friendly."

On non-availability of coal for the processing sector, he said a long-term policy decision had to be taken and it was being addressed.

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