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Tuesday, Feb 10, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls surge ahead

K. Premkumar

MONDAY'S trading activity was totally under the control of the bulls. Their dominance left the bears stranded. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to neutralise the prevailing sentiment reading.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The near month February contract opened with a bull gap of four points and marched ahead steadily throughout the day. February contract moved within a band of 48 points. Bulls capitalised the day's entire move. February contract closed higher with a strong bullish note.

The exit level for the long position in the February contract is out of the danger zone. This is unlikely to be triggered on Tuesday. Bearish trigger level for the February contract is placed far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list had some changes. Maruti moved to the fourth position followed by Satyam and M&M. Trading activity in Canara Bank was quite hectic on Monday with more than 3,800 trades.

Bulls were successful in initiating the uptrend in Maruti. This is likely to continue on Tuesday as its exit level is placed quite far away. Except for M&M, all the other counters in the list are in the uptrend. Most of the prevailing uptrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat.

Traders are left with a lone opportunity for Tuesday's trading. This is likely to exist on the long side of M&M. This counter has closed at Rs 455. Its buy level is placed quite closer to its current level. Bull move on Tuesday is likely to trigger this level.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had a minor change. Tata Motors moved to the fourth position.

For Tuesday, the uptrend in Infosys and Reliance is likely to be terminated. Selling opportunities are unlikely to exist. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in GAIL, Tata Motors and SAIL.

The best among the above is likely to be SAIL. This counter is in the sideways mode and the closing price is Rs 45.20. Its bullish trigger level is placed just 10 paise away. Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely to initiate the uptrend in the counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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