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Wednesday, Feb 11, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull run arrested

K. Premkumar

BULLS failed to maintain their pressure over Tuesday's trading activity. The day's activity resulted in terminating the uptrend in few tradable counters. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the morning session of the day's trading, the February month contract moved by 12 points. Later on, bears made a strong comeback and took hold of the day's proceedings. The February contract registered an intra-day low of 1856.10 after making a high of 1898.00. It closed with a loss of 8 points with respect to previous close.

The long position in the February contract is locked-up with a decent profit of around 24 points. The exit level is placed closer to its current level. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to terminate the uptrend. Bearish trigger level for the February contract has also been moved closer.

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Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains intact. The top three traded counters in this segment were Reliance, Satyam and Tata Steel.

Bulls failed to trigger the uptrend in the recommended counter M&M on Tuesday. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. For Wednesday, ample selling opportunities are likely to exist. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Satyam and Tata Motors. Selling in Tata Motors is likely to be best bet for Wednesday's trading. This counter has closed at 532.40. Bear domination on Wednesday has the potential to trigger this level.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes.

Tuesday's move had no impact on the recommended counter-SAIL. The uptrend in Infosys, Reliance, Satyam and Tata Steel are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in as much as six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Tata Motors and Tata Steel. Selling in Infosys is likely to be the best for Wednesday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Its sell level is placed within six rupees from its closing value. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate the downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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