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Thursday, Feb 12, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls regain

K. Premkumar

BULLS regained control of Wednesday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bullish.

Bears domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: February month contract opened firmly on Wednesday with a gap of more than five points. It made an intra-day low of 1877 and thereafter registered a high of 1901.40. February contract closed with a gain of 17 points with respect to previous close.

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The long position in the contract remains intact. This is locked-up with a decent profit of 18 points. In the normal course of trading on Thursday, the uptrend is likely to continue. However, bear domination on Thursday has the potential to terminate the uptrend.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains intact. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, Reliance and State Bank.

Wednesday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter - Tata Motors. None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. Except for Maruti, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in M&M, Reliance and Tata Motors. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in GAIL, Reliance and Tata Motors. The best among the above is likely to be the buying in Tata Motors. Its buy level is placed just Rs 3 from its closing value. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger this level.

Cash Segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list too remains unchanged.

Bears were successful in initiating the downtrend in Infosys. Bull domination on Thursday is likely to terminate the downtrend in Infosys and SAIL. On the other hand, the prevailing uptrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in GAIL, Reliance and Satyam. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Reliance and SAIL. The best bet for Thursday's trading is likely to be the selling in Reliance. This counter is in the sideways mode. Its bearish trigger level is placed quite closer to its current level. Bear move on Thursday is likely to initiate the downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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