Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Friday, Feb 13, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis

Lacklustre movement

K. Premkumar

THURSDAY'S market witnessed lacklustre movement. Bears were successful in terminating the uptrend in a few tradable counters. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bullish.

Bear domination on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: The near month February month contract opened with a gap of 6 points and went further by another 8 points. Later on, bears took over and wiped out their losses.

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The February contract registered an intra-day low of 1872.00. It closed with a marginal loss of 5 points with respect to Wednesday's close.

Bears were successful in terminating the uptrend in the February contract.

The long trade exited with a decent profit of 18 points.

Bullish and bearish trigger levels for the February contract are equally poised.

Stock Futures Recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains intact. Tata Steel, Reliance and Satyam were the top three traded counters in this segment.

Bulls were successful in initiating the uptrend in Tata Motors. However, this is under threat for Friday. Bear domination on Friday is likely to terminate the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the lone downtrend counter- CNX IT is likely to be under threat.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in as much as seven counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. The best bet is likely to be the selling in Satyam. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bear move on Friday has the potential to trigger the bearish level for this counter.

Cash Segment: The top-10 tradable in this segment underwent a change. ONGC gained entry with the exit of Tata Power. The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes.

Thursday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter - Reliance. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to terminate the uptrend in Tata Motors and Tata Steel. Otherwise the downtrend in ONGC is likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in seven counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters.

Selling in State Bank is likely to be the best for Friday's trading. Its sell level is placed within four rupees from its closing value. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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