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Tuesday, Feb 17, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Initial gains not held

K. Premkumar

BULLS extended their dominance during the morning session of Monday's trading. Later on, bears took over and wiped out their day's losses. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues remains bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The near month February contract opened around its previous close and gained its ground steadily. During the fag end of the day's trading, bears made a strong comeback to wipe out their losses. The February contract moved within a band of 19 points. It closed with a marginal loss of 3 points with respect to Friday's close.

The uptrend in the February contract remains intact. The exit for the long position is now placed at break-even level. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to terminate the uptrend. Bearish trigger level for the February contract has also been moved closer.

Stock futures recommendation: There were now new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list too remains the same with no major changes. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, Maruti and Reliance.

Monday's market action resulted in initiating the uptrend in Satyam. Bear domination on Monday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the tradable list. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in ACC and CNX IT.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. The best is likely to be the buying in ACC. This counter has closed at 273.70. Bull move on Tuesday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains undisturbed. The uptrend in Tata Motors is likely to be terminated at 391.95. Bulls failed to initiate the uptrend in recommended counter - Satyam. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in ACC, Reliance, State Bank and Tata Motors. Bears are likely to have opportunity in as much as six counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in GAIL, Infosys and Satyam. Selling in Infosys is likely to be the best for Tuesday's trading. Its bearish trigger level is placed within Rs 32 from its last traded price. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to initiate the downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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