The Hindu Business Line : Pakistanis uncertain on peace initiative

THIS time around, on a visit to Pakistan, one finds its people caught in a bind and a little uncertain about what exactly is on the cards, even as the latest Indo-Pak peace initiative appears to be holding nicely.

There is no doubt whatsoever on one issue: An overwhelming majority of Pakistanis want peace with India; they realise that half a century of bitterness and acrimony, that resulted in Indo-Pak wars, have not taken them anywhere.

On the latest Indo-Pak peace initiative, Mr Akhtar Alavi, director and general manager of Pakistan's largest insurance company says: "We have realised that we cannot take over Kashmir militarily. And we have our own problems — poverty, and acute water problem, growing population, and so on. We have had this eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between the two countries, and almost went into a war after Kargil and the subsequent events. All this has been a disaster for our economy. Your economy is stronger than ours. And there is international pressure as well, maybe for their own interest and the kind of scenario that the Americans have in mind. But above all else, there is no doubt that India is slowly emerging as a regional superpower."

Pakistanis, he adds, realise all this, but are wondering whether what appears on the surface is really true. "I would say that of both the sides because there are deeply entrenched vested interests on the two sides who do not want peace. I hope that what one sees on the surface really materialises, and that we are not saying whatever we are to suit each side's political ends: election strategy on your side or pressure from the West on ours. That is the worrying part. But if the people on both sides can become a driving force, then there is hope."

Though the Pakistan President, Gen Pervez Musharraf, continues to have his set of admirers in Pakistan, there is little doubt that a growing number of people are questioning his unabashed kowtowing to the Americans.

For instance, his speech made to the conference of the Ulemas and religious scholars and teachers in Islamabad on Wednesday, when he urged tribal leaders harbouring Taliban and al Qaeda leaders, to give them up, did not go down well with a section of the population, particularly to the sympathisers of the Islamic political parties.

In this gathering, Gen Musharraf warned that if the tribal leaders in the areas adjoining Afghanistan continued to harbour al Qaeda and Taliban elements, this belt could even be bombed by the US-led forces stationed in Afghanistan. "What would our response be to that? I leave it to you," he told the conference, urging the Ulemas to help in curbing extremism and sending out a signal to the world that we are "a moderate Islamic country".

Asked to comment on Gen Musharraf's advice to the tribal leaders to hand over the al Qaeda leaders, Mr Saeed Shah, a shopkeeper in Islamabad, who belongs to the North Western Frontier Province and is an ardent supporter of Maulana Fazlur Rehman of the Jamait Ulema-el Islam, said definitely: "Let him say what he wants. I do not think we should give up the al Qaeda people who are fighting for the cause of Islam."

Asking, "Isn't Islam the religion of the people of Pakistan," he adds: "I fail to understand this man. One day he says things which make you believe that whatever he is saying is for the good of Pakistan and its people. But the next day he will say something totally different, and to please the Americans. Unkey bolney ka andaz kuch aur hai, aur karney ka kuch aur. Main to hairan hoon (He says something and does something else. I am confused)."

But not confused in the least and giving his opinion definitively is Mr Ayaz Amir, the Islamabad-based popular columnist of the English daily Dawn.

Talking to Business Line on Gen Musharraf's comments, and the opposition to what he had said from a section of the people, he said: "You see, there is a groundswell of emotional support. Or, let us say an emotional anti-Americanism in Pakistan, as there is in India too, I am sure. But despite this here is a Pakistani leader saying publicly that look, we have to turn the corner. That is important and not the opposition to his statements." But he does not think "it is a question of courage or vision that is making him (Gen Musharraf) say all this. It is simply a question of the circumstances in which he is placed that has forced him to say it."

On the Indo-Pak peace initiative, too, says Mr Amir: "A different set of circumstances has made Pakistan take a well-thought-out decision that the old days are over and the kind of support that had been given to the freedom struggle in Kashmir is no longer there."

A known critic of Gen Musharraf, the columnist says that some of the general's policy decisions have been on the right track. "Getting rid of the Taliban in 2001 was a decision dictated by circumstances, but it helped us get rid of this albatross around our neck."

Similarly, on Kashmir, he feels that the Pakistan leadership has come to the conclusion that the old line on Kashmir is no longer sustainable, and friendship with India is in the interest of Pakistan.

On how both the countries could move forward in improving ties without solving the Kashmir issue, which at present appears to be unsolvable considering the huge gap between the Indian and the Pakistani ways of looking at it, Mr Amir says: "I do not think that both sides are looking towards a Kashmir solution in the near future, which means in our lifetime."

Maintaining that India is not serious about resolving the Kashmir issue, he says that thanks to a whole host of circumstances, "we are now playing on the Indian pitch. With that being the case, there is all the less reason for India to be serious about resolving Kashmir. So, in the overall scenario, Pakistan has played its cards a little badly, giving up too much and without getting anything in return."

Mr Saeed Shah agrees: "I don't think that a big country like India is interested in making any concessions on Kashmir. Wo to hum ko khila rahe hein, aur hum bhi khelney ke liye tayyar hein (India is playing a game and we too are ready to play along)."

(Response can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)

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