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Thursday, Mar 18, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bearish. Bull domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: The March contract opened five points higher than its previous close and moved further by 15 points. Later on, bears took over and wiped out their early losses.

The March contract moved within a band of 28 points. It closed with a marginal gain of two points.

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The day's move had no impact on the recommended levels.

The exit level for the downtrend in the March contract remains unchanged. The reversal entry level has been moved to the exit level.

In the normal course of trading on Thursday, the downtrend is likely to continue. However, bull domination has the potential to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list.

The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, Reliance and Tata Motors. Wednesday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter — Satyam.

Except for the uptrend in ONGC, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have ample opportunities for Thursday's trading. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in CNX-IT.

Buying in Satyam is likely to be the best for Thursday's trading. The counter is in the sideways mode. Its buy level is placed within two rupees from its closing value. Bull move on Thursday is likely to initiate the uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change. IPCL gained entry with the exit of M&M.

The ranking of the list remains the same with no major changes.

Bull domination on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the downtrend counters in the list. The lone uptrend counter-ONGC is likely to be safe. Selling opportunities are unlikely to exist for Thursday's trading. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in as much as seven counters. The best bet is likely to be Satyam. This counter is in the sideways mode and has closed at Rs 301.10. Its bullish trigger level is placed very close to its current level.

Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the uptrend in the counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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