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Friday, Mar 19, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of tradable counters stands bearish. Irrespective of bull or bear domination on Friday, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: At open, the March contract moved up by nine points. Thereafter, bears made an instant recovery and took charge of the day's trading. The March contract moved within a band of 44 points, registering an intra-day low of 1710.50. It closed with a loss of 28 points with respect to Wednesday's close.

The downtrend in the March contract remains undisturbed. The exit and bullish trigger levels are placed far away. In the normal course of trading on Friday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

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Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable counters remain unchanged. Reliance, Tata Steel and Tata Motors were the top three traded counters in this segment. The day's move had no impact on the recommended counter, Satyam.

For Friday, the uptrend in ONGC and the downtrend in Maruti are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT and Satyam. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Maruti. The best among the above is likely to be Satyam. This counter is in the sideways mode. Its bearish trigger level is placed within Rs 2 from its closing value. Bear move on Friday is likely to initiate the downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list too remains the same with no major changes. Bulls were unsuccessful in initiating the uptrend in the recommended counter, Satyam.

The uptrend in ONGC and the downtrend in GAIL are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have an opportunity in Infosys, Maruti and Satyam.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in GAIL and Maruti. Selling in Infosys is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading. This counter has closed at 4915.95. Its bearish trigger level is placed closer to its current level. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to trigger the downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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