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Saturday, Mar 20, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls recover

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bearish. Bull domination on Monday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: The March contract opened around its previous close and fell by 11 points. Thereafter, bulls made a strong comeback and took control of the day's proceedings. The March contract registered an intra-day high of 1738.70 after making a low of 1705.65. It closed with a gain of eight points.

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The short position in the March contract remains intact. In the normal course of trading on Monday, the downtrend is likely to continue. The exit and bullish trigger levels are placed around the same level.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Satyam moved to the third position followed by Maruti and Tata Power. Trading activity in Infosys was quite impressive on Friday with more than 8,000 trades.

Bull domination on Monday is likely to terminate the downtrend in M&M, State Bank and Tata Steel. On the other hand, the downtrend in CNX-IT is likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in ONGC and Tata Steel. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT and ONGC.

The best among the above is likely to be the buying in ONGC. Its buy level is placed closer to its current level. Bull move on Monday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in the counter.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remain undisturbed. Friday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter Infosys. Most of the prevailing downtrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat. The uptrend counters in the list are likely to be safe.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in GAIL, ONGC and Tata Steel. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in ONGC.

Buying in ONGC is likely to be the best bet for Monday's trading. This counter has closed at 859.00. Its bullish trigger level is placed closer to this level. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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