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Thursday, Mar 25, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bearish. Bull domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

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Otherwise, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the initial session, the March contract lost around 19 points. Later on, bulls made a strong comeback and wiped out their losses. The March contract moved within a band of 25 points. It closed around its previous close.

The day's move had no impact on the recommended levels. Thursday, being the last day for the March contract the short position in the March contract to be held with the stop loss order placed at 1750.45. If the stop loss order is not triggered, allow the position to expire. Bullish entry level is given for the April contract and this is placed quite far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. The ranking of list had some changes. Tata Motors moved to the fourth position followed by State Bank and Maruti. Bulls were successful in initiating the uptrend in the recommended counter-ONGC.

Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to terminate the downtrend in CNX IT, Maruti and Satyam. On the contrary, the lone uptrend counter-ONGC is likely to be under threat. Fresh entry levels for all the counters are given for the April contract. For Thursday, opportunities are likely to exist only on the long side. This is likely to exist in CNX IT, Maruti and Satyam. The best among the above is likely to be Satyam. This counter is in the downtrend. Its exit and buy levels are placed quite closer to its closing value. Bull move on Thursday has the potential to reverse the prevailing downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had a minor change. Maruti and Reliance interchanged their positions. Wednesday's market action resulted in triggering the downtrend in Infosys.

Except for ONGC, all the other counters in the list are in the downtrend. Bull domination on Thursday could be a threat to most of the downtrend counters in the list. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in ONGC. The best bet is likely to the buying in ONGC. This counter has closed at 851.00. Its bullish trigger level is placed within five rupees from this value. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to initiate the uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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