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Tuesday, Mar 30, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bulls march ahead

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: Initially, the near month April contract lost around 10 points. Later on, bulls took charge of the day's proceedings. The April contract moved within a band of 30 points. It closed with a gain of 15 points with respect to Friday's close.

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The uptrend in the April contract remains intact. The exit level for the long position is locked-up with a nominal profit of around 15 points. Bearish trigger level is placed far away and this is unlikely to be triggered on Tuesday.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. State Bank moved to the third position followed by Tata Power and Satyam. Monday's move had no impact on the recommended counter - ONGC.

None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. For Tuesday, the uptrend in GAIL and M&M are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in CNX IT, Maruti and Satyam. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT, ONGC, Maruti and Tata Power. Selling in Satyam is likely to be the best for Tuesday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode and has closed at Rs 312.85. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list in this segment remains unchanged. The ranking of the list had some changes. Reliance moved to the third position and Tata Motors moved to the sixth position.

Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in GAIL, IPCL and Maruti. On the contrary, the downtrend in Reliance is likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, Maruti and Satyam. Buying opportunities are likely to exist ONGC, Reliance and Tata Motors. The best among the above is likely to be the selling in Infosys. Bearish trigger level for Infosys is placed closer to its current level. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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