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Friday, Apr 02, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull onslaught

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination of Friday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. Otherwise, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The April contract opened around its previous close. Bulls were in total control of the day's trading. Their dominance left the bears stranded. The April contract moved within a band of 50 points. It closed with a gain of 46 points.

Bull domination during the day re-instated the uptrend in the April contract. The short trade exited with a loss of 31 points. The exit and bearish trigger levels for the April contract are placed far away. These levels are unlikely to be triggered on Friday.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had a minor change. ONGC and Tata Power interchanged their positions. Bulls were successful in triggering the uptrend in the recommended counter-M&M. However, the exit level for the initiated position is in the danger zone.

Bear domination on Friday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in CNX-IT, Satyam, Tata Power and Tata Steel. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in CNX-IT and ONGC.

The best among the above is likely to be Tata Power. This counter has closed at Rs 386.80. Its buy level is placed closer to this level. Bull move on Friday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Power.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list in this segment remains unchanged. The ranking of the list too remains the same with no major changes. Thursday' market action had no impact on the recommended counter IPCL.

For Friday, the uptrend in Reliance and State Bank are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in as much as six counters. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in ONGC. Buying in GAIL is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading. Bullish trigger level for GAIL is placed very close to its last traded value. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to initiate the uptrend in the counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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