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Harish Damodaran

New Delhi , April 5

THIS is one variable that could have a bearing on the course of the economy in the months to come: water levels in major reservoirs.

The country may have received good monsoons in 2003, which has helped its farm sector recover from the preceding year's widespread drought and post an 8 per cent-plus GDP growth for the fiscal just ended.

But the rains have not been good enough to boost the water storage position in major reservoirs.

Officials say that while the overall reservoir water availability is better than what it was at this time last year, the situation is still precarious and "we need one more successive good monsoon to build a satisfactory buffer."

For the week ending March 26, the water levels in as many as 51 of the 71 major reservoirs are ruling below their corresponding average storage for the last 10 years.

And within these 51, there are 36 reservoirs in which the current live storage has dipped even below last year's drought-induced levels.

In other words, more than half of the reservoirs have less water than what they had at this time last year, let alone their 10-year average levels.

Further, there are eight reservoirs — Sriramsagar and Somasila in Andhra Pradesh, Krishnaraja Sagra, Kabini and Hemavathy in Karnataka, Gandhi Sagar in Madhya Pradesh, Bhima (Solapur) in Maharashtra and Aliyar in Tamil Nadu — that do not have any useable water now.

The worst-affected States are Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra.

In Andhra Pradesh, apart from Sriramsagar and Somasila (catering to the entire Telangana region and Nellore, respectively), current water levels are 35 per cent lower than even last year's corresponding storage in Srisailam (Kurnool and Nalgonda).

In Nagarjuna Sagar, the State's second-largest reservoir covering coastal Andhra, Khammam and Nalgonda, the present storage is just 30 per cent of the last 10-years' average.

In Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, the current storage levels are below that of last year in all the major irrigation reservoirs, including Jayakwadi (Marathwada), Girna (Jalgaon) and Mula (Ahmednagar) and Mettur (Coimbatore, Salem, Thanjavur and Tiruchi), Vagai (Madurai), Lower Bhawani, Parambikulam and Sholayar (all feeding Coimbatore).

In Karnataka, too, the water availability is below last year's level in all the reservoirs, including Tungabhadra, Narayanpur, Ghataprabha and Bhadra.

Water levels have also fallen to similarly low levels in reservoirs dedicated to hydel power, such as Almati (Karnataka), Koyana (Maharashtra) and Rihand (Uttar Pradesh).

The Rana Pratap Sagar and Gandhi Sagar reservoirs that meet the irrigation and power requirements of the Kota, Sawai Madhopur, Bundi and Tonk belt of Rajasthan, too, have very little water.

However, the water storage position is much better in most reservoirs in the North, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa.

On an all-India basis, the current water level of 32.68 billion cubic metres (BCM) is higher than last year's corresponding storage of 28.10 BCM, though below the 10-year-average of 43.52 BCM for this date.

While the reservoirs in the Mahanadi, Tapi and Mahi river basins have adequate water, the story is not all that encouraging for the Southern Krishna-Cauvery-Godavari systems.

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