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Wednesday, Apr 07, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Sideways movement

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters continues to remain bullish. Tuesday's market action resulted in terminating a few downtrend counters. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading.

Nifty futures recommendation: The April contract was quite volatile on Tuesday. It moved within a band of 36 points registering an intra-day low of 1838.00 after making a high of 1874.00. It closed with a gain of 6 points with respect to Monday's close.

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The long position in the April contract remains undisturbed. Bearish trigger level for the April contract has moved to the exit level. However, both the exit and bearish levels are still placed far away. These levels are unlikely to be triggered on Wednesday.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list too remains the same with no major changes. The top three traded counters in this segment were State Bank, Tata Steel and Infosys.

For Wednesday, the uptrend in CNX IT, Reliance and Tata Steel are likely to be under threat. Opportunities are likely to exist on the short side of ONGC, Satyam and Tata Steel. The best among the above is likely to be the selling in Satyam. This counter is in the sideways mode. Its bearish trigger level is placed closer to its current level. Bear move on Wednesday is likely to trigger this level.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Maruti moved to the fourth position followed by Infosys and Reliance. Tuesday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter — State Bank.

Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in Infosys, State Bank and Tata Steel. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in ONGC, Satyam, State Bank and Tata Steel. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in GAIL. The best bet is likely to be the selling in ONGC. This counter has closed at 849.40. Its sell level is placed closer to this level. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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