The Hindu Business Line : S-W monsoon likely to be on time

THE keenly awaited south-west monsoon rains are expected to hit the shores of Kerala on time this year and are likely to be five per cent below average in June, according to the Bangalore-based CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (C-MMACS).

The southwest monsoon is expected to start on May 31 or June 1, the agency said in its latest forecast.

"The overall rains for the country may be five per cent below average in June," said Mr P. Goswami, scientist at C-MMACS. The southern States, except Tamil Nadu will get less rainfall than the rest of the country in June, he said. However, the deficit for the band stretching from Gujarat, passing right through central India and eastern States would be much higher at around 10 per cent, Mr Goswami added.

The C-MMACS is yet to come out with the forecast for the remaining three months of the rainy season. The monsoon rains are crucial to the country's economy as they account for 80 per cent of the annual rainfall. "C-MMACS' forecast," which is not the Government's version, "was very accurate in predicting a severe deficit in rainfall for Southern India, especially in Kerala and Karnataka last year," Mr Goswami said.

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