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Friday, Apr 16, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bullish with no downtrend counters. Bear domination on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing sentiment may be further strengthened.

Nifty futures recommendation: The April contract opened on a weak note and remained so throughout the day. It moved within a band of 36 points, registering an intra-day low of 1852.50. It closed with a loss of 27 points.

The long position in the April contract remained intact. However, this is likely to be under threat on Friday. The bearish trigger level for the April contract remains unchanged. Bear domination on Friday has the potential to reverse the prevailing trend in the April contract.

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Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remained unchanged. Trading activity in GA Cement was hectic on Thursday, with more than 5,200 trades. The long position in Maruti is likely to be terminated at 532.65.

The day's move resulted in initiating the uptrend in the recommended counter, Reliance. Bear domination on Friday may terminate the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. Bulls are likely to have opportunities in GAIL and ONGC. Selling opportunities are likely in ONGC, Reliance and Tata Steel. Buying in ONGC is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading. Buy level for this counter is placed closer to its current level. Bull moves on Friday have the potential to trigger this level.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list underwent a change.

Satyam moved to the top slot, followed by ONGC. Thursday's market action resulted in triggering the uptrend in the recommended counter, Tata Motors. Except for the uptrend in Tata Motors, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Buying opportunities are likely in GAIL and ONGC.

The best is likely to be the selling in Infosys. This counter is in the sideways mode. Its bearish trigger level is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Friday may initiate the downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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