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Tuesday, Apr 20, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bearish. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. On the contrary, prevailing sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty Futures Recommendation: During the open, the April contract gained four points. Thereafter, bears were in total control of the day's proceedings.

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The April contract moved within a band of 39 points. It closed with a loss of 31 points with respect to Saturday's close.

Bear domination during the day led to the reversal of the uptrend in the April contract. The long traded exited with a loss of around 12 points.

The initiated short position is likely to continue on Tuesday. The exit and bullish trigger level for the April contract is placed far away.

Stock Futures Recommendation: There were no new entries or exits of the top 10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had few changes. Tata Motors moved to the fourth position, followed by Infosys and ONGC.

Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate the downtrend in ONGC and Tata Steel. On the other hand, the prevailing uptrend counters are likely to be under threat.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. The best is likely to be the selling in Tata Power. This counter is in the uptrend. Its exit and bearish trigger levels are placed closer to its current level. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to trigger these levels.

Cash Segment: The composition of the top 10 tradable list in this segment as well as their ranking remains undisturbed. Most of the counters in the list are in the downtrend.

Bull pressure on Tuesday could be a threat to the downtrend in ONGC and Tata Steel. On the contrary, the lone uptrend counter, Maruti, is likely to be terminated. Bears are likely to have opportunity in Infosys and Maruti.

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys and Tata Steel. The best among the above is likely to be the selling in Infosys. Its sell level is placed closer to its current level. Bear move on Tuesday is likely to initiate the downtrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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