The Hindu Business Line : A close call likely in Andhra Pradesh

ONE of the hottest debates of this election pertains to whether the IT ikon of Andhra Pradesh - commonly referred to as CEO - Mr Chandrababu Naidu, who is credited with having put Hyderabad on the global map, will be able to overcome a 10 year incumbency handicap and return to power.

Not only return to power in Andhra Pradesh with a simple majority, but help the BJP coalition get a decent number of Lok Sabha seats out of 42 in the Andhra basket.

Against the dazzle of Hyderabad, and world leaders like the Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates or British Prime Minister Tony Blair opting to visit the cyber city while giving the southern metro Chennai a quiet go-by, there are any number of woes Andhra - particularly rural areas - faces today.

Farmers' suicide - at least a couple of thousand in recent times, drought conditions and no expansion in surface irrigation, increasing threat of violence from naxalites, the underdevelopment and backwardness of Telangana raked up in a shrill campaign by one-time friend K. Chandrasekhar Rao's TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi), growing unemployment and no let up in corruption and criminalisation.

There is a strong sentiment in Andhra Pradesh that Mr Naidu's 10 years in power have only deepened the urban-rural divide. Dr Jayaprakash Narayan, National co-ordinator of Lok Satta, which he prefers to call a `movement' rather than an NGO, agrees that one of the major issues in this election will be the agrarian crisis and the urban-rural divide.

"I don't think it is peculiar to AP, but it is felt here much more sharply than many other places, partly because of excessive centralisation of both political and economic power in Hyderabad. It has become the hub of all economic activity even though there is no reason why this should be so. It is not like Chennai which is a coastal city."

Another major problem pertains to unemployment, and when this is combined with corruption and a sense of frustration, the result is a "lazy attraction" towards becoming a naxalite.

"The moment you become a gun wielding naxalite, you wield enormous power, clout and money. Your lifespan may be reduced dramatically but that is a matter of the future," he observes dryly.

Most opinion polls have projected the Congress-I doing much better in Telangana, where it has sewed up an alliance with the TRS. But, as points out Prof F.D. Vakil, who teaches political science at the Osmania University, at the Nizamabad meeting the Congress-I President Ms Sonia Gandhi addressed a couple of days ago, she did not even mention Telangana.

"Somehow the whole alliance seems farcical; the TRS wants a separate Telangana, the Congress-I says development but no separate Telangana, and their allies, the Communists say `Vishal Andhra' This is the kind of contradiction that the voters are finding difficult to digest. Also, the Congress has given too much away to the TRS. Andhra Pradesh was once their citadel... the tragedy of the Congress is that even though it has a strong presence in Andhra, a sub-regional party like the TRS is able to dictate terms to it."

Most political analyst in Andhra feel the backwardness of Telangana region is more an "emotional issue" than anything else.

Says Dr Narayan, "It is more a cultural identity issue. This does not mean there is no backwardness in Telangana but there are parts of Rayalseema and North coastal Andhra which are even poorer than Telangana."

Dr Vakil adds that the Telangana issue has failed to excite or agitate youngsters. "In our Arts College we find nobody even talking about Telangana . Everybody is studying; they want to pass their exams, get a job and race towards progress. I've been teaching for 30 years and found that earlier, on one Telangana call the entire hostel would be on the streets, but this is no longer so. This time the students are mute spectators."

The biggest factor that the Congress-I-TRS combine hope will help them in this election is the promise of free power to farmers.

"The Congress-I' charge is that Mr Naidu has mortgaged Andhra Pradesh to the World Bank and the development he claims is a mirage. It remains to be seen whether the farmers really believe that the party will give them free power. At least the bigger farmers know that this is hardly possible in this day and age. So this promise has the danger of having a backlash... that are you bluffing us," adds Dr Vakil.

There is also consensus on the TDP having managed much better dissidence and infighting within its ranks than the Congress-I, which has several leaders and groups. Dr Vakil compares Mr Naidu to chess wizard Viswanathan Anand.

"Before the Congress can even think of something, he

has made his moves." Much before the polls were announced, the TDP had in place district wise information of winnable candidates.

But the one factor that might bail out a TDP battling a 10-year incumbency disadvantage is the women's votes. The schemes for the girl child, the huge number of self-help groups that have ushered in economic empowerment for rural women and even the supply of gas stoves to women in villages, are seen as factors benefiting the TDP.

"To you and me, supply of gas stoves might appear like a gimmick. But for the poor, rural woman struggling with her cooking chores, what this has done in terms of reducing her drudgery is immense," says Dr Vakil.

At the end of the day, points out Dr Narayan, the decisive factor will be the allocation of seats and political management. "The party that can manage dissent best; manage the conduct of the polls with the cadres getting people to come out and vote and make them believe that there is no viable alternative to provide stability to Andhra Pradesh, will win."

He feels that it will be cohesive organisation and political management versus 10 years of incumbency that will decide how AP votes. But, he is sure Andhra will never see the kind of 10 year anti-incumbency wave that the Digvijay Singh government saw a few months ago. "You'll never see the MP verdict in Andhra. Even if TDP loses, it will not be swept out of power in a massive way. If they lose it'll be by a whisker. If they gain power, that too will be by a whisker. It's a close race and the TDP leadership is anxious. They understand the dangers and pitfalls, but at the same time they are professionals who have handled elections and know the game. Also Vajpayee versus Sonia will also be an important electoral issue here."

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