The Hindu Business Line : Will gender swing it for the TDP?

THE fight for Andhra Pradesh has begun, with polling conducted for 21 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats and corresponding Assembly segments in the State. The ruling Telugu Desam Party, the BJP's staunchest and strongest ally in NDA, which had 29 seats in the 13th Lok Sabha, is pitted against a 10-year incumbency handicap.

The AP Chief Minister and TDP chief, Mr Chandrababu Naidu, may mouth the development mantra but the Congress(I) and the TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) have launched a scathing attack on his administration for what they call a mismanagement of drought and which, according to them, has led to the State setting a dubious record of highest number of farmer suicides reported in the country; the growing menace of Naxalite-related violence; the deepening urban-rural divide; growing unemployment and the "mortgaging of the State's interests to the IMF-World Bank combine." The first round of polling covered the Telangana region.

Despite infighting and dissidence, the Congress(I) will continues to have a significant presence in the State, and has now managed to forge an alliance with the TRS and the Left parties. Its leadership hopes that the emotional Telangana issue, and its promise of free power to farmers bring it within sniffing distance of power at Hyderabad. The Congress expects also to do better than its miserable performance of 1999 when it managed a mere five out of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. Even the BJP captured seven seats in the State that was once a Congress(I) citadel.

But the party is caught up in dissidence and infighting and its organisational set up is hardly a match for the well-managed TDP establishment. So by all accounts it will be a tough fight in AP. But what can swing the verdict in the favour of either side are two components: The votes of women and Muslims.

AP has about 11 per cent Muslim population, and according to Dr F. D. Vakil, Vice-Chairman of the Andhra Pradesh Minorities commission, who teaches political science at Osmania University, about 30 per cent of it is concentrated in the Old City of Hyderabad. In a candid interview to Business Line in Hyderabad, where he analysed the status of the community and why it had remained poor and backward, he said the "biggest tragedy of Muslims in Andhra Pradesh is lack of good political leadership. Whatever leadership it has, had emerged from illiteracy, Muslim vote banks and ghettos. I have a suspicion that no Muslim leader is interested in removing poverty or reform the ghetto politics of the Muslims for fear of losing this vote bank."

But for this, he adds, there is no reason why "a single family should continue to hold sway over the Muslims of the old city for decades altogether." His reference is of course to the Owaisi family, where this time the mantle has passed on from father Salauddin to his Asaduddin, who is contesting the Hyderabad city Lok Sabha seat.

Dr Vakil points out that in the context of Indian elections, 11 per cent of the population should be able to "play a decisive role in dozens and dozens of constituencies." But this is not happening because apart from the Old City of Hyderabad, Muslims in AP are concentrated in the districts of Nizamabad, Medak, Kurnool, Ananthapur, Cuddapah and Ranga Reddy. "There is complete lack of political competition in the old city. The same family rule of the MIM continues. Most of them live outside the old city, but their politics is done in the old city. And they have been ruling for generations. Should somebody not ask them why the old city remains poor and backward with horrible living conditions? Why has no initiative been taken for development or to educate the Muslims?"

Answering the question himself, he says that this is so because each time any attempt at reform is made, "they raise the issue of religion. I agree that identity is a good thing and minority identity has to be preserved. But don't overdo it. When you create an exclusive community you are creating a sullen community... and the sullen syndrome sets in ki hum ek zamaney mei kuch they, is zamaney mei kuch nahi hei (Once upon a time we were great; but today we are nobody). Then they raise the issue of Urdu language. Why should this be only in AP? Are not the Muslims of Kerala and Tamil Nadu comfortable with the local language?"

Requesting Muslims to come out of the "ghetto mindset," he says they should compel their political leadership to raise real issues that affect Muslims, such as literacy, schools, health care, employment and poverty.

Dr Vakil finds it difficult to understand why Muslim parents in the Old City take their children out of schools once they reach Class V or VI. "What is the ambition of these parents? Chhoti chhoti ashayen (little aspirations), that my son has finished Standard V and I have sent him to a mechanic's shop to be trained. The girl is taken out of school and made to do household chores and then married. Is it not the duty of the political leadership to tell the parents that this is not the right thing to do? Should Muslims continue to remain backward for generations to come?"

He feels there is no attempt at change because it suits the Muslim political leadership. "The ghetto mindset is creating vote banks for the same leadership and so there is no circulation of the political elite. Democracy can be vibrant only when the political elite keep changing. What we now have is political strangulation with the same family ruling. So much of money comes from the Muslim NRIs, but no public schools are being built," he says.

Blaming the Muslim leaders for making no attempt to bring their women out of the kitchen, Dr Vakil suggests that they take a leaf out of the book of the Scheduled Caste women, who have economically empowered themselves through the micro credit scheme for self-help groups. Incidentally, Mr Chandrababu Naidu is seen as a chief minister who has done much to encourage the micro credit schemes for women and many political analysts think that women from several such self help groups will vote for the TDP, cutting across party loyalties.

Dr Vakil agrees. "If the TDP manages to return to power despite so many odds, it will be largely due to the vote bank of women it has built up. It brought women out of the kitchen... something that the Muslim leadership does not want to do. I say render unto Caesar what is Caesar's and to God what is God's. Religious sentiment is fine but somewhere the Lakshman rekha should be drawn and the women should be empowered."

Coming to the larger issue of how Muslims will vote in AP, he says that while the Hyderabad seat will go to the MIM, in the remaining areas "it is not necessary that Muslims will vote only for the Congress(I). In the coastal areas and the Telangana region, the Muslims have realised that the TDP has done something for them. It has controlled communal riots and division. In the worst days of the Ayodhya yatra, AP was free form communal riots because there was political will to control this phenomenon and Muslims realise this. Fortunately, the younger generation is becoming more aware and refusing to get caught in the communal mess. They want jobs; they want a CM who has a mission and a vision."

Dr Jayaprakash Narayan, National Coordinator of the Lok Satta movement, agrees with this perception, as he does with that on women favouring the TDP. "Definitely the TDP has an edge on the gender front. It is acknowledged by everybody in AP that women voters will favour the TDP, which right from NTR's days, has been sensitive to women's rights and had given the right of property to women."

He says that AP was the first State to enact such a law. "Most people do not know it was the first in India to give reservation to women in local governance." He added that even in the allocation of seats, there had been a definite effort to put up women candidates. "I find a clear and concerted effort on the TDP's part to woo women and this is bound to have an impact on the poll outcome."

Dr Narayan adds that the Muslim vote will not be "completely against the TDP because the party has an impeccable record of secular governance. Nobody, not even its worst critics, can dispute that. The Congress(I), on the other hand, has a very bad record of managing communal issues. Muslims have no genuine reason to vote for the Congress(I) here because every time the Congress was in power there have been communal riots in Hyderabad. But the TDP is fiercely and aggressively secular. Something like Gujarat can never every happen under the TDP rule."

And, yet, he concludes, 70 per cent of Muslim vote will go to the Congress(I); "in 1998, 90 per cent went to the TDP, because it was not with the BJP then."

Response can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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